Table 2 Model parameters and cost data

Epidemiological parameters

Symptomatic infectiousness timeline

0.5 day latent (non infectious), 1 day asymptomatic; 2 days peak symptomatic; 2.5 days post-peak symptomatic

[30]

Asymptomatic infectiousness timeline

0.5 day latent; 5.5 days asymptomatic

[30]

Asymptomatic infectiousness

0.5

[30]

peak symptomatic infectiousness

1.0

-

post-peak symptomatic infectiousness

0.5

[30]

Probability of asymptomatic infection

0.32

[33]

Probability of adult withdrawal from work if sick

0.5 (0.25,0.75)*

-

Probability of child withdrawal from school if sick

0.9 (0.5,1.0)*

-

Basic Reproduction Number R₀ and Attack Rate (%)

R₀ = 1.5, AR = 24.4% (R₀ = 1.8 and AR = 32.4%, R₀ = 2.5, AR = 43.8%)*

-

Intervention parameters

Antiviral infectiousness reduction

66% (33%, 89%)*

[35, 40]

Antiviral susceptibility reduction

85% (43%, 90%)*

[35, 40]

Prophylaxis symptom reduction probability

50%

[35]

Diagnosis delay

12 h

-

Diagnosis ratio

50%

-

Maximum antiviral courses given for treatment

1 course per person for 5 days

-

Maximum antiviral courses given for prophylaxis

1 course per person for 10 days

-

School Closure Duration

2 weeks, 8 weeks and continuously

-

School Closure Trigger

20 to 40 community cases

[5]

School Closure withdrawal probability

1.0 (0.5, 0.75)*

-

Workforce Reduction Duration

4 weeks and continuously

-

Workforce Reduction Trigger

2 weeks after first case

-

Workforce Reduction attendance probability

0.5 (0.25, 0.75)*

-

Community Contact Reduction (CCR) Duration

4 weeks and continuously

-

CCR Trigger

2 weeks after first case

-

CCR withdrawal probability

0.5 (0.25, 0.75)*

-

Pandemic severity parameters

Severity Category 1 (CFR < 0.1%)

Case Fatality Rate = 0.1%

[42]

Severity Category 2 (CFR 0.1% - 0.5%)

Case Fatality Rate = 0.25%

[42]

Severity Category 3 (CFR 0.5% - 1.0%)

Case Fatality Rate = 0.75%

[42]

Severity Category 4 (CFR 1.0% - 2.0%)

Case Fatality Rate = 1.5%

[42]

Severity Category 5 (CFR > = 2.0%)

Case Fatality Rate = 2.5%

[42]

Hospitalisation / fatality ratio

32:1

ICU / fatality ratio

3:1

Average hospital stay (days)

4

[1, 43]

Average ICU stay (days)

7

[1, 43]

Economic analysis parameters

Average wages (per week)

$836

[44]

Average school closure cost (per student per day)

$19.22

[45]

Average GP visit cost

$106.97

[46]

Average hospitalization cost (per day)

$1042

[46]

Average ICU cost (per day)

$2084

[46, 47]

Antiviral cost per course

$24.81

[46]

Antiviral dispensing cost per course

$31.22

[46]

Antiviral shelf life

5 years

[48]

Mean time between pandemics

30.3 years

-

Discount Rate (annually)

3%

[49]