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Table 2 Disease outcomes given R 0 =1.5, 2.0 and 2.5

From: Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

School closure of 12 weeks

R0=1.5

R0=2.0

R0=2.5

 

outp.

inp.

deaths

AR(%)

outp.

inp.

deaths

AR(%)

outp.

inp.

deaths

AR(%)

No intervention

92779

1929

584

37

128932

2738

844

51

146088

3150

983

58

Scenario A (baseline)

            

K

87388

1846

560

35

123904

2673

825

49

141642

3098

968

56

P

83081

1779

540

33

121245

2638

815

49

140075

3080

962

56

S

85718

1813

550

34

123784

2665

822

49

142328

3101

968

57

K+P

77605

1692

514

31

115823

2566

793

47

135161

3022

945

54

K+P+S

69989

1559

474

29

109800

2477

767

44

130661

2962

927

53

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

 

R0=1.5

R0=2.0

R0=2.5

 

outp.

inp.

deaths

AR(%)

outp.

inp.

deaths

AR(%)

outp.

inp.

deaths

AR(%)

Scenario B

            

K

85200

1798

546

34

122669

2645

817

49

140911

3082

963

56

P

79765

1707

519

32

119377

2597

803

48

138986

3056

955

55

S

85718

1813

550

34

123784

2665

822

49

142328

3101

968

57

K+P

71608

1559

475

29

112224

2487

770

45

133028

2975

932

53

K+P+S

64030

1423

434

26

105671

2387

740

43

128221

2910

912

52

Scenario C

            

K

89954

1885

572

36

126502

2707

835

50

144110

3127

976

57

P

87441

1847

560

35

125354

2691

830

50

143677

3121

974

57

S

89346

1873

568

36

126696

2706

835

50

144607

3131

977

57

K+P

84498

1801

547

34

122774

2657

820

49

141574

3097

967

56

K+P+S

80744

1738

528

33

120292

2621

810

48

139934

3075

961

56

  1. Outp= outpatient. Inp= inpatient. AR=attack rate.
  2. Scenario A is the base case scenario; scenario B included a 50% reduction in contacts among care-taking parents absent from work based on scenario A; scenario C reduced the compliance to 50% from scenario A.