Modeling the impact of the difference in cross-protection data between a human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine and a human papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 vaccine in Canada

Kohli, Michele; Lawrence, Donna; Haig, Jennifer; Anonychuk, Andrea; Demarteau, Nadia

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-872

Table 4 Distributions used for probabilistic sensitivity analyses

From: Modeling the impact of the difference in cross-protection data between a human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine and a human papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 vaccine in Canada

Variable names	Distribution	Distribution parameters
Probability of transitioning between health states
HPVOnc to CIN1	Normal^*	0.076 (S.D. 0.009) [75]
HPV low risk to CIN1	Normal^*	0.036 (S.D.0.005) [76, 77]
CIN1 low risk regression	Normal^*	0.5 (S.D. 0.145) [77]
CIN1 Onc Cured	Normal^*	0.5 (S.D. 0.145) [76–78]
CIN1 Onc to CIN2/3 progression	Normal^*	0.13 (S.D. 0.021) [76, 78]
CIN2/3 Cured	Normal^*	0.5 (S.D.0.058) [76, 77]
HPV Onc regression	Uniform^†	0.375 - 0.625[79]
HPVOnc to CIN2/3 progression	Uniform^†	0.008 - 0.013 (assumption)
HPV Low risk regression	Uniform^†	0.218 - 0.363 (assumption)
Genital Wart resistent	Uniform^†	0.188 - 0.313[80]
Proportion CIN1 Onc detected and treated	Uniform^†	0.375-0.625[76]
CIN1 treatment success	Uniform^†	0.95 -1[76]
CIN2/3 progress to cancer	Uniform^†	0.045 - 0.075 (assumption)
Proportion CIN2/3 detected and treated	Uniform^†	0.9 -1 (assumption)
CIN2/3 treatment success	Uniform^†	0.9-1 (assumption)
Cervical cancer to death	Uniform^†	0.056 - 0.094[81]
Cervical cancer to cured	Uniform^†	0.184 - 0.307[81]
Utility data
No HPV	Fixed (1)	1 [57, 58]
HPV	Fixed (1)	1 [57, 58]
Death	Fixed (0)	0
Genital Wart	Uniform^‡	0.015 - 0.025 [58, 82]
CIN1 detected	Uniform^‡	0.010 - 0.016 [57, 58]
CIN2/3 detected	Uniform^‡	0.007 - 0.012 [57, 58]
Cancer	Uniform^‡	0.205 - 0.341 [57, 58]
Cancer cured	Uniform^‡	0.047 - 0.078 [57, 58]
Screening effectiveness
CIN1 detected	Normal^Â§	0.422 (S.D. 0.045) [81]
CIN2/3 detected	Normal^Â§	0.554 (S.D. 0.045) [81]
Percentage estimated positive Pap smear	Uniform^‡	0.035 - 0.059 (expert opinion)
Vaccine effectiveness
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18	Normal (Mean: 98%; SD: 0.022)	0.98 (S.D. 0.022) [26, 48]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18	Normal (Mean: 98%; SD: 0.022)	0.98 (S.D.0.022) [43, 50, 83]
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against other HPV onc	Normal^\|\|	0.48 (S.D. 0.083) [25]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against other HPV onc	Normal^\|\|	0.23 (S.D. 0.072) [27]
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against CIN1 and other	Normal^\|\|	0.48 (S.D. 0.083) [25]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against CIN1 and other	Normal^\|\|	0.23 (S.D. 0.0715) [27]
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against CIN2+	Normal^\|\|	0.68 (S.D. 0.092) [25]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against CIN2+	Normal^\|\|	0.33 (S.D. 0.115) [27]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against HPV-6 and −11	Normal^\|\|	0.98 (S.D. 0.065) [49, 50]
HPV type distributions
Proportion of HPV Onc	Uniform^†	0.585 - 0. 975 [84]
Proportion of HPV-6/11 among warts in Canada	Uniform^†	0.572 - 0.953 [84]
Proportion of HPV-16 and −18 among CIN1 in Canada	Uniform^†	0.188 - 0.312 [84]
Proportion of HPV-16 and −18 among CIN2/3	Uniform^†	0.437 - 0.729 [84]
Proportion of HPV-6 and −11 among CIN1	Uniform^†	0.06 - 0.10 [84]
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CIN1	Uniform^†	0.252 - 0.42 [84]
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CIN2/3	Uniform^†	0.256 - 0.426 [84]
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CC	Uniform^†	0.144 - 0.240 [84]
Proportion CIN1onc among CIN1 (other being CIN1LR)	Uniform^†	0.51 - 0.85 [84]
Cost data
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine vaccine	Uniform^‡	$ 281 - $469 (assumption)

CC – Cervical cancer.
CIN – Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia.
HPV – Human papillomavirus.
Onc - oncogenic.
SD – Standard deviation.
* Normal distribution between 0 and 1 using as mean, the observed mean, and as standard deviation, 25% of the difference between the minimum and maximum value reported in the literature.
† Multiplied by a uniform distribution from 0.75 to 1.25 (with a maximum of 100%).
‡ Multiplied by uniform distribution from 0.75 – 1.25.
Â§ Normal distribution between 0 and 1 using as the mean: the observed mean and as the standard deviation 25% of difference of the confidence interval.
|| Normal distribution with a mean and standard deviation reported in clinical trials.

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