Probability of transitioning between health states
|
HPVOnc to CIN1
|
Normal*
|
0.076 (S.D. 0.009) [75]
|
HPV low risk to CIN1
|
Normal*
|
0.036 (S.D.0.005) [76, 77]
|
CIN1 low risk regression
|
Normal*
|
0.5 (S.D. 0.145) [77]
|
CIN1 Onc Cured
|
Normal*
|
0.5 (S.D. 0.145) [76–78]
|
CIN1 Onc to CIN2/3 progression
|
Normal*
|
0.13 (S.D. 0.021) [76, 78]
|
CIN2/3 Cured
|
Normal*
|
0.5 (S.D.0.058) [76, 77]
|
HPV Onc regression
|
Uniform†
|
0.375 - 0.625[79]
|
HPVOnc to CIN2/3 progression
|
Uniform†
|
0.008 - 0.013 (assumption)
|
HPV Low risk regression
|
Uniform†
|
0.218 - 0.363 (assumption)
|
Genital Wart resistent
|
Uniform†
|
0.188 - 0.313[80]
|
Proportion CIN1 Onc detected and treated
|
Uniform†
|
0.375-0.625[76]
|
CIN1 treatment success
|
Uniform†
|
0.95 -1[76]
|
CIN2/3 progress to cancer
|
Uniform†
|
0.045 - 0.075 (assumption)
|
Proportion CIN2/3 detected and treated
|
Uniform†
|
0.9 -1 (assumption)
|
CIN2/3 treatment success
|
Uniform†
|
0.9-1 (assumption)
|
Cervical cancer to death
|
Uniform†
|
0.056 - 0.094[81]
|
Cervical cancer to cured
|
Uniform†
|
0.184 - 0.307[81]
|
Utility data
|
No HPV
|
Fixed (1)
|
1 [57, 58]
|
HPV
|
Fixed (1)
|
1 [57, 58]
|
Death
|
Fixed (0)
|
0
|
Genital Wart
|
Uniform‡
|
0.015 - 0.025 [58, 82]
|
CIN1 detected
|
Uniform‡
|
0.010 - 0.016 [57, 58]
|
CIN2/3 detected
|
Uniform‡
|
0.007 - 0.012 [57, 58]
|
Cancer
|
Uniform‡
|
0.205 - 0.341 [57, 58]
|
Cancer cured
|
Uniform‡
|
0.047 - 0.078 [57, 58]
|
Screening effectiveness
|
CIN1 detected
|
Normal§
|
0.422 (S.D. 0.045) [81]
|
CIN2/3 detected
|
Normal§
|
0.554 (S.D. 0.045) [81]
|
Percentage estimated positive Pap smear
|
Uniform‡
|
0.035 - 0.059 (expert opinion)
|
Vaccine effectiveness
|
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18
|
Normal (Mean: 98%; SD: 0.022)
|
0.98 (S.D. 0.022) [26, 48]
|
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18
|
Normal (Mean: 98%; SD: 0.022)
|
0.98 (S.D.0.022) [43, 50, 83]
|
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against other HPV onc
|
Normal||
|
0.48 (S.D. 0.083) [25]
|
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against other HPV onc
|
Normal||
|
0.23 (S.D. 0.072) [27]
|
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against CIN1 and other
|
Normal||
|
0.48 (S.D. 0.083) [25]
|
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against CIN1 and other
|
Normal||
|
0.23 (S.D. 0.0715) [27]
|
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against CIN2+
|
Normal||
|
0.68 (S.D. 0.092) [25]
|
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against CIN2+
|
Normal||
|
0.33 (S.D. 0.115) [27]
|
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against HPV-6 and −11
|
Normal||
|
0.98 (S.D. 0.065) [49, 50]
|
HPV type distributions
|
Proportion of HPV Onc
|
Uniform†
|
0.585 - 0. 975 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV-6/11 among warts in Canada
|
Uniform†
|
0.572 - 0.953 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV-16 and −18 among CIN1 in Canada
|
Uniform†
|
0.188 - 0.312 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV-16 and −18 among CIN2/3
|
Uniform†
|
0.437 - 0.729 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV-6 and −11 among CIN1
|
Uniform†
|
0.06 - 0.10 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CIN1
|
Uniform†
|
0.252 - 0.42 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CIN2/3
|
Uniform†
|
0.256 - 0.426 [84]
|
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CC
|
Uniform†
|
0.144 - 0.240 [84]
|
Proportion CIN1onc among CIN1 (other being CIN1LR)
|
Uniform†
|
0.51 - 0.85 [84]
|
Cost data
|
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine vaccine
|
Uniform‡
|
$ 281 - $469 (assumption)
|