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Table 4 Distributions used for probabilistic sensitivity analyses

From: Modeling the impact of the difference in cross-protection data between a human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine and a human papillomavirus (HPV)-6/11/16/18 vaccine in Canada

Variable names Distribution Distribution parameters
Probability of transitioning between health states
HPVOnc to CIN1 Normal* 0.076 (S.D. 0.009) [75]
HPV low risk to CIN1 Normal* 0.036 (S.D.0.005) [76, 77]
CIN1 low risk regression Normal* 0.5 (S.D. 0.145) [77]
CIN1 Onc Cured Normal* 0.5 (S.D. 0.145) [7678]
CIN1 Onc to CIN2/3 progression Normal* 0.13 (S.D. 0.021) [76, 78]
CIN2/3 Cured Normal* 0.5 (S.D.0.058) [76, 77]
HPV Onc regression Uniform 0.375 - 0.625[79]
HPVOnc to CIN2/3 progression Uniform 0.008 - 0.013 (assumption)
HPV Low risk regression Uniform 0.218 - 0.363 (assumption)
Genital Wart resistent Uniform 0.188 - 0.313[80]
Proportion CIN1 Onc detected and treated Uniform 0.375-0.625[76]
CIN1 treatment success Uniform 0.95 -1[76]
CIN2/3 progress to cancer Uniform 0.045 - 0.075 (assumption)
Proportion CIN2/3 detected and treated Uniform 0.9 -1 (assumption)
CIN2/3 treatment success Uniform 0.9-1 (assumption)
Cervical cancer to death Uniform 0.056 - 0.094[81]
Cervical cancer to cured Uniform 0.184 - 0.307[81]
Utility data
No HPV Fixed (1) 1 [57, 58]
HPV Fixed (1) 1 [57, 58]
Death Fixed (0) 0
Genital Wart Uniform 0.015 - 0.025 [58, 82]
CIN1 detected Uniform 0.010 - 0.016 [57, 58]
CIN2/3 detected Uniform 0.007 - 0.012 [57, 58]
Cancer Uniform 0.205 - 0.341 [57, 58]
Cancer cured Uniform 0.047 - 0.078 [57, 58]
Screening effectiveness
CIN1 detected Normal§ 0.422 (S.D. 0.045) [81]
CIN2/3 detected Normal§ 0.554 (S.D. 0.045) [81]
Percentage estimated positive Pap smear Uniform 0.035 - 0.059 (expert opinion)
Vaccine effectiveness
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 Normal (Mean: 98%; SD: 0.022) 0.98 (S.D. 0.022) [26, 48]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 Normal (Mean: 98%; SD: 0.022) 0.98 (S.D.0.022) [43, 50, 83]
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against other HPV onc Normal|| 0.48 (S.D. 0.083) [25]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against other HPV onc Normal|| 0.23 (S.D. 0.072) [27]
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against CIN1 and other Normal|| 0.48 (S.D. 0.083) [25]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against CIN1 and other Normal|| 0.23 (S.D. 0.0715) [27]
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ Normal|| 0.68 (S.D. 0.092) [25]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against CIN2+ Normal|| 0.33 (S.D. 0.115) [27]
HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against HPV-6 and −11 Normal|| 0.98 (S.D. 0.065) [49, 50]
HPV type distributions
Proportion of HPV Onc Uniform 0.585 - 0. 975 [84]
Proportion of HPV-6/11 among warts in Canada Uniform 0.572 - 0.953 [84]
Proportion of HPV-16 and −18 among CIN1 in Canada Uniform 0.188 - 0.312 [84]
Proportion of HPV-16 and −18 among CIN2/3 Uniform 0.437 - 0.729 [84]
Proportion of HPV-6 and −11 among CIN1 Uniform 0.06 - 0.10 [84]
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CIN1 Uniform 0.252 - 0.42 [84]
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CIN2/3 Uniform 0.256 - 0.426 [84]
Proportion of HPV 10 types among CC Uniform 0.144 - 0.240 [84]
Proportion CIN1onc among CIN1 (other being CIN1LR) Uniform 0.51 - 0.85 [84]
Cost data
HPV-16/18 AS04-adjuvanted vaccine vaccine Uniform $ 281 - $469 (assumption)
  1. CC – Cervical cancer.
  2. CIN – Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia.
  3. HPV – Human papillomavirus.
  4. Onc - oncogenic.
  5. SD – Standard deviation.
  6. * Normal distribution between 0 and 1 using as mean, the observed mean, and as standard deviation, 25% of the difference between the minimum and maximum value reported in the literature.
  7. † Multiplied by a uniform distribution from 0.75 to 1.25 (with a maximum of 100%).
  8. ‡ Multiplied by uniform distribution from 0.75 – 1.25.
  9. § Normal distribution between 0 and 1 using as the mean: the observed mean and as the standard deviation 25% of difference of the confidence interval.
  10. || Normal distribution with a mean and standard deviation reported in clinical trials.