Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator

Table 1 Epidemiological estimations for a mild and a severe pandemic scenario

	Mild baseline scenario*	Severe baseline scenario*
Overall attack rate	421,704 (38.34%)	422,839 (38.44%)
Clinical attack rate	295,237 (26.84%)	297,295 (27.03%)
Peak prevalence of symptomatic cases	10,034 (0.91%)	10,017 (0.91%)
Peak prevalence hospitalised cases	176 (0.02%)	176 (0.02%)
Critical outpatients (over total pandemic)	11 (0.001%)	3018 (0.27%)
Case fatality rate	115 (0.01%)	3,543 (0.32%)

* Estimations made for a mild and severe baseline scenario for a region in Lao PDR (Vientiane Prefecture and Vientiane Province) assuming actual available resources, a basic reproduction number of 1.4 and 10% contact reduction. No other interventions were assumed and only severe cases were treated with antivirals. Values are provided in absolute numbers with the percentage of total population size (n = 1,099,889).

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