Table 3 The association between short-term sick leave and long-term sick leave, disability pension and unemployment
Regression model |  | Sick leave >30 days in 2007 (n=582) | Disability pension in 2007 (n=109) | Unemployment in 2006 ≤180 days (n=343) | Unemployment in 2006 >180 days (n=103) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Short-term sick-leave spells (STSL) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | |
Crude | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.40 (1.15-1.70) | 0.72 (0.46-1.12) | 1.10 (0.86-1.43) | 1.10 (0.73-1.68) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.00 (1.62-2.46) | 0.72 (0.42-1.24) | 1.76 (1.35-2.29) | 0.54 (0.28-1.04) |
Model 1 (M1): Short- term sick leave adjusted for socio-demographic factors | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.48 (1.21-1.81) | 0.81 (0.51-1.28) | 1.01 (0.77-1.31) | 1.34 (0.86-2.07) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.27 (1.81-2.84) | 1.08 (0.62-1.90) | 1.33 (1.00-1.76) | 0.70 (0.35-1.42) |
Model 2: M1 and self-rated health (SRH) | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.47 (1.20-1.81) | 0.75 (0.47-1.19) | 1.01 (0.78-1.32) | 1.32 (0.85-2.06) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.16 (1.72-2.72) | 0.85 (0.48-1.50) | 1.34 (1.01-1.78) | 0.65 (0.32-1.33) |
Model 3: M1 and limiting longstanding illness (LLSI) | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.48 (1.21-1.82) | 0.81 (0.51-1.29) | 0.99 (0.76-1.29) | 1.34 (0.86-2.07) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.16 (1.72-2.71) | 0.93 (0.53-1.64) | 1.32 (0.99-1.75) | 0.68 (0.33-1.37) |
Model 4: M1 and mental wellbeing (GHQ12) | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.51 (1.22-1.85) | 0.78 (0.49-1.23) | 1.01 (0.77-1.31) | 1.33 (0.86-2.08) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.29 (1.82-2.87) | 1.02 (0.58-1.80) | 1.25 (0.93-1.67) | 0.60 (0.29-1.25) |
Model 5: M1 and musculoskeletal pain | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.47 (1.19-1.80) | 0.76 (0.48-1.21) | 1.01 (0.77-1.31) | 1.31 (0.84-2.03) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.18 (1.74-2.73) | 0.94 (0.54-1.65) | 1.34 (1.01-1.78) | 0.66 (0.33-1.34) |
Model 5: M1 and somatic disease | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.47 (1.20-1.80) | 0.81 (0.52-1.29) | 0.99 (0.76-1.29) | 1.37 (0.88-2.13) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.24 (1.78-2.81) | 1.07 (0.61-1.88) | 1.34 (1.01-1.78) | 0.72 (0.36-1.46) |
Model 7: M1 and in-patient care in 2002 | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.47 (1.20-1.80) | 0.78 (0.50-1.24) | 1.00 (0.77-1.30) | 1.35 (0.87-2.09) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.26 (1.80-2.83) | 1.07 (0.61-1.87) | 1.32 (1.00-1.76) | 0.71 (0.35-1.43) |
Model 8: M1 and GHQ12, SRH, LLSI, musculoskeletal pain, somatic disease, in-patient care in 2002 | No STSL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Â | Low STSL | 1.49 (1.21-1.85) | 0.73 (0.45-1.18) | 0.98 (0.75-1.29) | 1.37 (0.87-2.14) |
| Â | High STSL | 2.11 (1.67-2.67) | 0.74 (0.42-1.33) | 1.29 (0.97-1.74) | 0.56 (0.26-1.18) |