Nighttime assaults: using a national emergency department monitoring system to predict occurrence, target prevention and plan services

Table 3 Generalised linear model examining independent impacts of calendar events on mean numbers of assault presentations per night to emergency department services in England

Variable		Slope (B)	95%CIs		P
Months	January	−31.22	−44.88	−17.56	<0.001
	February	13.64	−0.69	27.98	0.062
	March	6.14	−7.76	20.03	0.387
	April	41.02	27.18	54.86	<0.001
	May	52.44	38.61	66.27	<0.001
	June	46.99	33.04	60.93	<0.001
	July	51.03	37.35	64.70	<0.001
	August	59.88	45.53	74.24	<0.001
	September	36.54	22.75	50.32	<0.001
	October	31.11	17.32	44.90	<0.001
	November	6.43	−7.47	20.34	0.365
	December (Ref)
Weekends &	Fri-Sat	303.13	296.84	309.42	<0.001
Holidays	Bank Holiday Eves Sun-Thur	242.74	221.55	263.94	<0.001
	New Year’s Eve Sun-Thur	970.35	904.72	1035.98	<0.001
	Bank Holiday Eves Fri-Sat	275.85	183.57	368.13	<0.001
	New Year’s Eve Fri-Sat	1107.85	1015.57	1200.13	<0.001
	Sun-Thur (Ref)
ⁱSporting	FA Cup final	53.62	−0.45	107.68	0.052
Events	Six Nations Rugby	7.65	−18.41	33.72	0.565
	World Cup Football England	298.05	251.10	344.99	<0.001
	Olympics	−38.07	−62.70	−13.44	0.002
	UEFA Champions final	32.03	−21.86	85.92	0.244
ⁱCelebrations	St Patrick's day	65.38	11.49	119.26	0.017
	Halloween	191.99	138.10	245.88	<0.001
	Valentine's day	−12.61	−68.61	43.40	0.659
	Guy Fawkes night	96.37	42.50	150.24	<0.001
	St George's day	7.45	−46.43	61.33	0.786

ⁱ Sporting events and celebrations are all entered into the generalised linear model as separate binary variables. Reference categories have been omitted. Data cover the time period 31st March 2008 to 30th March 2011 (see Methods). 95%CI = 95% confidence intervals. Full details of calendar events, sporting events and celebrations are given in Table 1.

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