Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

Table 5 Male smoking attributable deaths, SimSmoke Italy, 2010-2040

Policies	2010	2020	2030	2040	Cumulative
*Status Quo Policies*	60,652	64,855	61,949	54,607	1,854,650
*Independent Policy Effects*
Rolling Price Changes**	60,652	63,424	58,657	51,042	1,788,696
Complete Smoke Free Air Laws	60,652	64,805	61,837	54,501	1,852,354
Comprehensive Marketing Ban	60,652	64,697	61,598	54,261	1,847,374
High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign	60,652	63,428	58,619	51,128	1,785,387
Strong Health Warnings	60,652	64,731	61,592	54,138	1,847,242
Strong Youth Access Enforcement	60,652	64,855	61,937	54,493	1,854,008
Cessation Treatment Policies	60,652	63,939	59,387	51,356	1,801,675
*Combined Policy Effects*
All above	60,652	60,876	52,195	43,617	1,654,086
*Absolute Change in Attributable Deaths from Status Quo*					2011-2040
*Independent Policy Effects*
Rolling Price Changes**		1,431	3,292	3,565	65,953
Complete Smoke Free Air Laws		50	112	105	2,296
Comprehensive Marketing Ban		158	351	345	7,276
High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign		1,427	3,330	3,479	69,263
Strong Health Warnings		124	357	469	7,407
Strong Youth Access Enforcement		0	12	114	641
Cessation Treatment Policies		916	2,562	3,250	52,975
*Combined Policies*		3,979	9,754	10,990	200,563

** 25% change 2010–2011, 20% change 2011–2012, 15% change 2012–2013, 10 % change 2013–2014, 5% change 2014–2015. Prices kept at 2015 level throughout the remaining projection period.

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