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Table 3 SimSmoke Projections: Male smoking prevalence for ages 15 and above, Italy, 2010-2040

From: Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy

POLICY/YEAR

2010

2011

2020

2030

2040

Status Quo Policies

26.8%

26.6%

24.3%

22.2%

20.4%

Independent Policy Effects

Rolling Price Changes**

26.8%

25.8%

22.0%

19.6%

17.6%

Complete Smoke Free Air Laws

26.8%

26.5%

24.3%

22.2%

20.4%

Comprehensive Marketing Ban

26.8%

26.4%

24.1%

22.0%

20.2%

High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign

26.8%

24.9%

22.6%

20.4%

18.6%

Strong Health Warnings

26.8%

26.5%

24.2%

22.0%

20.2%

Strong Youth Access Enforcement

26.8%

26.5%

23.8%

21.2%

19.1%

Cessation Treatment Policies

26.8%

26.1%

23.2%

20.9%

19.1%

Combined Policy Effects

All above

26.8%

23.4%

18.4%

15.5%

13.3%

% Change in Smoking Prevalence from Status Quo*

Independent Policy Effects

Rolling Price Changes**

 

−2.7%

−9.6%

−11.6%

−13.5%

Complete Smoke Free Air Laws

 

−0.2%

−0.2%

−0.1%

−0.1%

Comprehensive Marketing Ban

 

−0.7%

−0.8%

−0.9%

−1.0%

High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign

 

−6.1%

−7.2%

−8.1%

−8.7%

Strong Health Warnings

 

−0.2%

−0.7%

−1.0%

−1.2%

Strong Youth Access Enforcement

 

−0.4%

−2.3%

−4.3%

−6.2%

Cessation Treatment Policies

 

−1.9%

−4.6%

−5.9%

−6.5%

Combined Policy Effects

All above

 

−12.0%

−24.5%

−30.3%

−34.6%

  1. * Measured relative to the status quo in the same year, i.e., (SRp,t-SRStatus quo,t)/ SRStatus quo,t, where SRp,t is the smoking rate in year t with policy p and SRStatus quo,t is the smoking rate in year t under the status quo.
  2. ** 25 % change 2010–2011, 20 % change 2011–2012, 15 % change 2012–2013, 10 % change 2013–2014, 5 % change 2014–2015. Prices kept at 2015 level throughout the remaining projection period.