Table 3 Average Cumulative Attack Rates (CAR) for school age population and adults under the high transmission scenarios (standard deviations in parentheses)
From: Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making
R0 [1.5-2.1] | CAR for different durations (weeks) of closure for each triggers (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Closure Triggers | Populations | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 24 |
0.50% | Students | 73.96 | 73.71 | 73.36 | 73.04 | 71.21 | 65.28 | 10.10 |
(2.7) | (3.3) | (3.3) | (3.5) | (3.7) | (3.1) | (1.4) | ||
Adults | 76.90 | 76.76 | 76.62 | 76.46 | 75.36 | 71.14 | 35.51 | |
(2.2) | (2.2) | (2.1) | (1.9) | (2.1) | (3.8) | (6.0) | ||
0.80% | Students | 73.80 | 73.28 | 72.88 | 72.50 | 69.80 | 61.16 | 11.40 |
(3.5) | (3.7) | (3.9) | (3.6) | (4.6) | (8.1) | (1.0) | ||
Adults | 76.78 | 76.62 | 76.44 | 76.24 | 74.67 | 68.71 | 38.14 | |
(2.1) | (10) | (2.0) | (2.1) | (2.6) | (4.9) | (3.4) | ||
1.10% | Students | 73.58 | 72.95 | 72.37 | 71.85 | 68.31 | 56.65 | 12.90 |
(3.8) | (3.3) | (3.6) | (3.2) | (4.8) | (7.9) | (1.0) | ||
Adults | 76.74 | 76.47 | 76.21 | 75.94 | 73.88 | 66.16 | 40.34 | |
(2.2) | (2.1) | (2.2) | (2.3) | (2.6) | (4.4) | (3.4) | ||
1.40% | Students | 73.32 | 72.51 | 71.90 | 71.13 | 66.54 | 51.80 | 14.55 |
(3.1) | (3.2) | (3.1) | 3.8) | (4.3) | (7.8) | (9.0) | ||
Adults | 76.61 | 76.30 | 75.97 | 75.66 | 73.02 | 63.52 | 42.44 | |
(2.0) | (3.2) | (2.1) | (2.2) | (2.2) | (5.3) | (2.2) | ||
1.70% | Students | 73.22 | 72.15 | 71.28 | 70.47 | 64.81 | 47.38 | 15.90 |
(3.5) | (2.0) | (3.5) | (4.2) | (5.8) | (9.5) | (1.0) | ||
Adults | 76.58 | 76.13 | 75.74 | 75.35 | 72.13 | 61.26 | 44.02 | |
(2.2) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (2.2) | (3.1) | (5.4) | (4.2) | ||
2.00% | Students | 73.00 | 71.80 | 70.74 | 69.62 | 62.98 | 43.48 | 17.30 |
(3.4) | (2.2) | (2.0) | (3.9) | (5.7) | (9.4) | (1.5) | ||
Adults | 76.52 | 75.96 | 75.51 | 74.99 | 71.22 | 59.25 | 45.15 | |
(2.3) | (3.7) | (3.9) | (1.8) | (3.2) | (5.1) | (2.5) | ||
3% | Students | 72.28 | 70.49 | 68.75 | 67.21 | 56.47 | 31.82 | 21.80 |
(3.4) | (1.9) | (2.0) | (3.9) | (7.1) | (4.8) | (2.0) | ||
Adults | 53.33 | 52.80 | 52.24 | 51.73 | 47.59 | 39.04 | 49.40 | |
(2.1) | (4.2) | (3.2) | (2.1) | (3.9) | (3.4) | (2.9) | ||
4% | Students | 71.56 | 69.04 | 66.80 | 64.47 | 50.04 | 32.20 | 26.60 |
(3.4) | (3.5) | (2.1) | (4.2) | (7.6) | (2.7) | (2.0) | ||
Adults | 53.12 | 52.39 | 51.70 | 50.91 | 45.47 | 38.92 | 52.95 | |
(2.2) | (2.2) | (4.0) | (2.3) | (4.0) | (3.3) | (4.4) | ||
5% | Students | 70.87 | 67.63 | 64.68 | 61.61 | 45.40 | 33.34 | 30.40 |
(3.5) | (3.8) | (2.1) | (4.7) | (5.1) | (1.9) | (3.5) | ||
Adults | 52.94 | 51.97 | 51.04 | 50.03 | 44.13 | 39.98 | 55.90 | |
(2.2) | (2.2) | (4.5) | (2.5) | (3.2) | (3.4) | (4.0) | ||
6% | Students | 70.16 | 66.24 | 62.58 | 58.91 | 43.41 | 36.35 | 35.30 |
(3.8) | (3.7) | (4.1) | (5.0) | (3.1) | (3.0) | (4.0) | ||
Adults | 52.74 | 51.57 | 50.43 | 49.21 | 43.86 | 41.45 | 58.99 | |
(2.3) | (2.3) | (2.7) | (3.1) | (3.1) | (3.3) | (4.0) | ||