Table 3 Model input parameters and their uncertainty distributions
Parameter |    Value Mean (SE or 95%CI) | Uncertainty distribution | Sources and assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
RR of IHD with treatment | Â | Â | Â |
-Statin -Diuretic -Calcium channel blocker -ACE inhibitor -Beta-blocker | 0.70 (0.61 to 0.81) 0.86 (0.75 to 0.98) 0.85 (0.78 to 0.92) 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) 0.78 (0.89 to 1.02) | Normal (lnRR) | |
RR of stroke with treatment | Â | Â | Â |
-Statin -Diuretic -Calcium channel blocker -ACE inhibitor -Beta-blocker | 0.81 (0.71 to 0.93) 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72) 0.66 (0.58 to 0.75) 0.78 (0.66 to 0.92) 0.70 (0.83 to 0.99) | Normal (lnRR) | |
RR of stroke in IHD | Â | Â | Â |
-Men -Women | 1.32 (0.20) 1.88 (0.30) | Normal (lnRR) | |
RR of IHD in stroke | Â | Â | Â |
-Men -Women | 2.64 (0.07) 2.85 (0.04) | Normal (lnRR) | |
IHD treatment cost | Â | Â | Â |
-First year -Subsequent years | $12,921 $4,539 | Uniform | Lim [43]. Uniform distribution assumed to vary by ±25% around mean. |
Stroke treatment cost | Â | Â | Â |
-First year -Subsequent years | $23,581 $3,201 | Uniform | Lim [43]. Uniform distribution assumed to vary by ±25% around mean. |
Proportion of population visiting a GP in one year | Â | Â | Â |
35–44 yrs 45–54 yrs 55–64 yrs 65–74 yrs 75+ yrs | Men Women 73% 88% 81% 89% 81% 89% 93% 94% 99% 99% | – | BEACH data [17] |
Proportion of GPs measuring absolute risk | 65% (6.5%) | Beta | Practice Incentives Program data [50]. |
First year drug discontinuation rate | 40% (8%) | Beta | Estimate from Australian survey data [21, 22]. Standard error assumed to be 20% of point estimate. |