Table 2 Stage-specific estimates of prevalence of patients requiring active anti-tumour therapy for colorectal cancer in the Czech Republic in 2015 according to the eight scenarios

Scenario 1: Constant proportion of treated patients;

Constant incidence rate; Constant survival rates

Scenario 2: Constant proportion of treated patients;

Constant incidence rate; Improving survival rates

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

3,650

565

479

4,694

3,650

607

524

4,781

1,783

355

541

2,679

1,783

407

625

2,815

1,419

181

766

2,366

1,419

212

898

2,529

220

16

99

335

220

13

76

309

7,072

1,117

1,885

10,074

7,072

1,239

2,123

10,434

Scenario 3: Constant proportion of treated patients;

Modelled incidence rate; Constant survival rates

Scenario 4: Constant proportion of treated patients;

Modelled incidence rate; Improving survival rates

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

3,581

547

467

4,595

3,581

589

511

4,681

2,223

422

632

3,277

2,223

475

725

3,423

1,428

177

761

2,366

1,428

207

892

2,527

131

10

59

200

131

9

47

187

7,363

1,156

1,919

10,438

7,363

1,280

2,175

10,818

Scenario 5: Modelled proportion of treated patients;

Constant incidence rate; Constant survival rates

Scenario 6: Modelled proportion of treated patients;

Constant incidence rate; Improving survival rates

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

3,613

560

562

4,735

3,613

602

613

4,828

1,831

362

628

2,821

1,831

415

727

2,973

1,675

206

890

2,771

1,675

241

1,038

2,954

122

9

121

252

122

7

92

221

7,241

1,137

2,201

10,579

7,241

1,265

2,470

10,976

Scenario 7: Modelled proportion of treated patients;

Modelled incidence rate; Constant survival rates

Scenario 8: Modelled proportion of treated patients;

Modelled incidence rate; Improving survival rates

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

Newly diagnosed patients

Non-terminal cancer recurrence

Terminal

cancer recurrence

Total

3,542

544

549

4,635

3,542

583

599

4,724

2,285

429

734

3,448

2,285

484

844

3,613

1,697

203

887

2,787

1,697

236

1,036

2,969

72

5

71

148

72

5

57

134

7,596

1,181

2,241

11,018

7,596

1,308

2,536

11,440