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Table 2 Estimates of protective efficacy of prompt ACT treatment for uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria

From: Protective efficacy of malaria case management for preventing malaria mortality in children: a systematic review for the Lives Saved Tool

Child age CFR among children receiving no treatment (per 10,000)[14] Estimated CFR among children receiving prompt ACT treatment (per 10,000) Protective efficacy Lower bound Upper bound
<2 years 500 6.8 98.6% 94.4% 99.7%
2-5 years 200 6.8 96.6% 86.0% 99.3%
  1. CFR: case fatality ratio
  2. Protective efficacy = (1-Relative risk) * 100, where Relative risk = CFR receiving ACT / CFR no treatment
  3. Lower bound based on sensitivity analysis where CFR among treated children assumed double (14 per 10,000) and CFR among untreated children assumed to be half (250 and 100 per 10,000 for children <2 and 2-5 years old, respectively).
  4. Upper bound based on sensitivity analysis where CFR among treated children assumed to be half (3 per 10,000) and CFR among untreated children assumed to be double (1,000 and 400 per 10,000 for children <2 and 2-5 years old, respectively).