Figure 5

Average overall illness attack rates (%) for modeled interventions. Average overall illness attack rates for the following scenarios: no intervention; pre-vaccination; reactive vaccination with delays in initiation of 0, 30, and 60 days after the intervention trigger of a 0.01% overall illness attack rate; antiviral treatment or household prophylaxis with 10% population coverage (intervention “A”); rolling, as-needed five-day individual school closures and social distancing (20% reduction in workgroup and general community contacts—intervention “S”); antiviral use plus vaccination; school closure, and social distancing plus vaccination; antiviral use, school closure and social distancing, plus vaccination (“A+S”). Vaccination coverage is 35% of the population in Figures 5A and 5B; it is 70% of the population in Figures 5C and 5D. In reactive vaccination scenarios, additional supply-chain disruptions are assumed, such that vaccines are available in three equal batches, spaced two weeks apart, after initiation of vaccination programs. In Figures 5A and 5C, a low-efficacy vaccine is assumed (efficacy against susceptibility, VEs, 0.3; efficacy against infectiousness, VEi, 0.2). In Figures 5B and 5D, a moderate-efficacy vaccine is assumed (VEs, 0.5; VEi, 0.5).