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Table 1 Estimates of the inputs to the model

From: The cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes

Input Value Data source
Probability of experiencing an outcome associated with physical activity
Probability of experiencing CHD when active 0.014 HSE [21]; Shaper et al. [19]
Probability of experiencing CHD when sedentary 0.027 HSE [21]; Shaper et al. [19]
Probability of experiencing stroke when active 0.011 HSE [21]; Herman et al. [20]
Probability of experiencing stroke when sedentary 0.015 HSE [21]; Herman et al. [20]
Probability of experiencing type II diabetes when active 0.022 HSE [21]; NICE [8]
Probability of experiencing type II diabetes when sedentary 0.044 HSE [21]; NICE [8]
Inputs used in calculating QALYs/treatment costs
Utility/health state value of being in CHD state 0.55 Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]
Utility/health state value of being in stroke state 0.52 Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]
Utility/health state value of being in type II diabetes state 0.7 Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]
Utility/health state value of being in a non-disease health state 0.83 Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]
Average age of cohort (in years) 50 HSE [18]
Average age of mortality (in years) 84 ONS [23]
Assumed average age of onset of a disease health state (in years) 55 NICE [8]
Life years remaining after onset of CHD 18.41 NICE [8]; ONS [23]
Life years remaining after onset of stroke 5.12 NICE [8]; ONS [23]
Life years remaining after onset of type II diabetes 28.13 NICE [8]; ONS [23]
Lifetime treatment costs*/QALYs associated with health states (per person)
Lifetime treatment costs associated with CHD state £17,728 NICE [8]
Lifetime treatment costs associated with stroke state £1,965 DH [22]
Lifetime treatment costs associated with type II diabetes state £50,309 Currie et al. [21]
Lifetime treatment costs associated with non-disease health state - -
QALYs associated with CHD state 9.94 Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]
QALYs associated with stroke state 5.15 Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]
QALYs associated with type II diabetes state 14.18 Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]
QALYs associated with non-disease health state 17.18 Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]
  1. *Costs are in 2010 prices.