Table 1 Estimates of the inputs to the model

Probability of experiencing an outcome associated with physical activity

Probability of experiencing CHD when active

0.014

HSE [21]; Shaper et al. [19]

Probability of experiencing CHD when sedentary

0.027

HSE [21]; Shaper et al. [19]

Probability of experiencing stroke when active

0.011

HSE [21]; Herman et al. [20]

Probability of experiencing stroke when sedentary

0.015

HSE [21]; Herman et al. [20]

Probability of experiencing type II diabetes when active

0.022

HSE [21]; NICE [8]

Probability of experiencing type II diabetes when sedentary

0.044

HSE [21]; NICE [8]

Inputs used in calculating QALYs/treatment costs

Utility/health state value of being in CHD state

0.55

Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]

Utility/health state value of being in stroke state

0.52

Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]

Utility/health state value of being in type II diabetes state

0.7

Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]

Utility/health state value of being in a non-disease health state

0.83

Kind et al. [22]; NICE [8]

Average age of cohort (in years)

50

HSE [18]

Average age of mortality (in years)

84

ONS [23]

Assumed average age of onset of a disease health state (in years)

55

NICE [8]

Life years remaining after onset of CHD

18.41

NICE [8]; ONS [23]

Life years remaining after onset of stroke

5.12

NICE [8]; ONS [23]

Life years remaining after onset of type II diabetes

28.13

NICE [8]; ONS [23]

Lifetime treatment costs*/QALYs associated with health states (per person)

Lifetime treatment costs associated with CHD state

£17,728

NICE [8]

Lifetime treatment costs associated with stroke state

£1,965

DH [22]

Lifetime treatment costs associated with type II diabetes state

£50,309

Currie et al. [21]

Lifetime treatment costs associated with non-disease health state

-

-

QALYs associated with CHD state

9.94

Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]

QALYs associated with stroke state

5.15

Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]

QALYs associated with type II diabetes state

14.18

Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]

QALYs associated with non-disease health state

17.18

Kind et al. [23]; NICE [8]