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Table 4 Vector Autoregressive Model Evaluating Prediction of Pertussis Test Positivity by Lagged Pertussis Positivity and Test Submissions

From: Pertussis resurgence in Toronto, Canada: a population-based study including test-incidence feedback modeling

Independent Variable and Lag

Entire Study Period

(1993-2007)

Prior to Novel PCR

(1993 to April 2005)

Novel PCR

(May 2005 to December 2007)

 

Coefficient (95% CI)

P-value

Coefficient (95% CI)

P-value

Coefficient (95% CI)

P-value

Test Positivity

 

< 0.001*

 

0.55*

 

0.003*

1 week lag

0.49 (0.41 to 0.58)

< 0.001

0.20 (0.12 to 0.28)

< 0.001

0.56 (0.34 to 0.79)

< 0.001

2 week lag

0.42 (0.33 to 0.51)

< 0.001

0.22 (0.14 to 0.30)

< 0.001

0.55 (0.31 to 0.79)

< 0.001

3 week lag

0.16 (0.07 to 0.25)

< 0.001

0.18 (0.10 to 0.27)

< 0.001

0.10 (-0.14 to 0.34)

0.42

4 week lag

-0.22 (-0.31 to -0.14)

< 0.001

0.07 (-0.01 to 0.16)

0.07

-0.42 (-0.64 to -0.20)

< 0.001

Test Volume

      

1 week lag

0.02 (0 to 0.04)

0.05

0.01 (-0.01 TO 0.02)

0.52

0.02 (-0.03 to 0.07)

0.41

2 week lag

-0.06 (-0.08 to -0.04)

< 0.001

-0.02 (-0.04 TO 0.01)

0.08

-0.09 (-0.15 to -0.03)

< 0.001

3 week lag

0.03 (0.01 to 0.06)

< 0.001

0.01 (-0.01 TO 0.03)

0.48

0.07 (0.01 to 0.13)

0.03

4 week lag

0.01 (0 to 0.03)

0.11

0.00 (-0.01 TO 0.02)

0.68

0.02 (-0.02 to 0.07)

0.27

Test Positivity

 

< 0.001*

 

< 0.001*

 

< 0.001*

1 week lag

1.41 (1.03 to 1.79)

< 0.001

0.44 (0.08 TO 0.80)

0.02

1.81 (0.78 to 2.83)

< 0.001

2 week lag

0.61 (0.21 to 1.01)

< 0.001

0.57 (0.21 TO 0.93)

< 0.001

0.94 (-0.15 to 2.02)

0.09

3 week lag

-0.05 _0.45 to 0.36)

0.83

0.17 (-0.20 TO 0.53)

0.37

-0.14 (-1.24 to 0.96)

0.81

4 week lag

-1.04 (-1.42 to -0.67)

< 0.001

-0.20 (-0.56 to 0.16)

0.28

-1.30 (-2.28 to -0.32)

0.01

Test Volume

      

1 week lag

0.66 (0.58 to 0.74)

< 0.001

0.49 (0.41 to 0.57)

< 0.001

0.67 (0.45 to 0.90)

< 0.001

2 week lag

0.01 (-0.08 to 0.11)

0.77

0.22 (0.13 to 0.31)

< 0.001

-0.15 (-0.41 to 0.12)

0.29

3 week lag

0.25 (0.15 to 0.35)

< 0.001

0.12 (0.04 to 0.21)

0.01

0.39 (0.12 to 0.66)

0.01

4 week lag

-0.08 (-0.16 to 0)

0.04

0.05 (-0.03 to 0.12)

0.26

-0.11 (-0.30 to 0.09)

0.28

  1. NOTE: CI, confidence interval; * signifies P-value from Granger causality test.
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BMC Public Health

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