From: Cost-effectiveness of novel vaccines for tuberculosis control: a decision analysis study
Variable | Value | Source |
---|---|---|
HIV Infection | Â | Â |
   Annual risk of progression - asymptomatic to AIDS | 7% | |
   Annual risk of death - early HIV (asymptomatic) | 4.6% | [22] |
   Annual risk of death - clinical AIDS | 22% | [22] |
   Median survival with early HIV | 9.8 yrs | |
   Median survival with clinical AIDS | 9 months | [22] |
Risk of developing active TB disease | Â | Â |
   HIV uninfected |  |  |
Within 2 years of new TB infection | 5% | |
Within 2 years of re-infection after cured TB disease | 1% | |
Late re-activation from longstanding latent TB* | 0.1%/year | |
   Early HIV |  |  |
Within 2 years of new TB infection | 33% | Extrapolated |
Within 2 years of re-infection after cured TB disease | 33% | Assumption |
Late re-activation from longstanding latent TB* | 3.4%/year | |
   Clinical AIDS |  |  |
Within 2 years of new TB infection | 100% | |
Within 2 years of re-infection after cured TB disease | 100% | Assumption |
Late re-activation from longstanding latent TB* | 33%/year | [23] |
Untreated Smear Positive TB Outcomes (HIV-negative) | Â | Â |
   Spontaneous resolution | 25% | [72] |
   Relapse after spontaneous resolution | 2.5%/year | |
   Mortality rate within 2 years | 33% at 1 year; 50% at 2 years | [74] |
Untreated Smear Positive TB Outcomes (HIV-positive) | Â | Â |
   Spontaneous resolution | 0% | Assumption |
   Mortality rate within 2 years | 100% | Assumption |
Treated Smear Positive TB Outcomes (HIV-negative) | Â | Â |
   Relapse after cure (total over next 2 years) | 3.0% | |
   Cure rate if default (single drug resistant or drug sensitive)** | 62.4% | |
Effect of Drug Sensitivity on Treatment Outcomes | Â | Â |
   Relative risk of treatment failure - single drug resistant | 2.0 | [84] |
   Relative risk of treatment failure - multi-drug resistant | 10.5 | [84] |
   Relative risk of death - single drug resistant | 1.0 | [84] |
   Relative risk of death - multi-drug resistant | 4.5 | [84] |
Multi-Drug Resistant TB Treatment Outcomes | Â | Â |
   Completed/Cured | 68.6% | [85] |
   Default/Failed/Transferred | 17.1% | [85] |
   Died | 14.2% | [85] |
Treated Smear Positive TB Outcomes (HIV-positive) | Â | Â |
   Relative risk of death during TB treatment with HIV infection | 2.25 | |
   Relapse after successful TB treatment (cured) | 3.1% |