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Table 1 Input parameters (i.e. discount rate and transition probabilities) used in Markov model

From: Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand

Parameters Distribution Mean SE References
Yearly discount rate (%)     
Costs (range)   3 (0-6)   [17]
Outcome (range)   3 (0-6)   [17]
Transition probabilities     
Probabilities of HIV infection classified by risk group     
Annual incidences of HIV infected in general population aged 18 years Beta 0.001   [18]
Annual incidences of HIV infection in FSW Beta 0.022 0.016 [19]
Annual incidences of HIV infection in IDU Beta 0.034 0.002 [20]
Annual incidences of HIV infection in MSM Beta 0.055 0.010 [21]
Annual incidences of HIV infection in male conscripts Beta 0.002 0.001 [19]
Transition probabilities of HIV positive with asymptomatic state     
Annual progression risk from asymptomatic to symptomatic state Beta 0.865 0.047 [46]
Annual death risk of asymptomatic state Beta 0.058 0.008 [22]
Transition probabilities of HIV positive with symptomatic state     
Annual probability to progress from HIV to AIDS Beta 0.087 0.0004 [6, 10]
Constant in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -8.38 1.44 [24]
CD4 coefficient in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -0.01 0.001 [24]
Ancillary parameter in Weibull distribution Lognormal 0.04 0.19 [24]
Average CD4 of patients (#patients=234) Lognormal 321.44 9.46 [24]
Transition probabilities of AIDS state to death     
Constant in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -4.81 0.86 [23]
Age coefficient in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -0.04 0.02 [23]
CD4 coefficient in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -0.02 0.00 [23]
Ancillary parameter in Weibull distribution Lognormal -0.33 0.11 [23]
Average CD4 of patients (#patients=646) Gamma 81.01 2.67 [23]
Transition probability of switching from first-line to second-line ART regimen     
Constant in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -6.17 0.52 [23]
CD4base coefficient in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal 0.003 0.001 [23]
Age coefficient in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal 0.0313 0.0113 [23]
Ancillary parameter in Weibull distribution Lognormal -0.49 0.07 [23]
Transition probability of switching from second-line to third-line ART regimen     
Constant in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal -10.29 1.27 [23]
Age coefficient in survival analysis for baseline hazard Lognormal 0.06 0.02 [23]
Ancillary parameter in Weibull distribution Lognormal 0.01 0.14 [23]
  1. SE: standard error; FSW: female sex worker; IDU: injecting drug user; and MSM: men who have sex with men.