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Table 6 Regression results by jurisdiction for trends in annual fatality rates: 1971-2009 and 1992-2009

From: Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

1971-2009 Preferred Model Variablea Coefficient Std. Errorb t-stat R 2 SEc BGd J-Be
Australia(+) exponential α 84.05 3.03 27.75*** 0.97 0.078 18.86*** 1.71
   x -0.04 0.002 -27.92***     
NSW(■ +) exponential α 90.53 5.45 16.62*** 0.94 0.125 17.85*** 1.28
   x -0.04 0.00 -16.20***     
Vic.(+) exponential α 87.58 2.88 30.37*** 0.95 0.11 11.32*** 0.95
   x -0.04 0.00 -29.51***     
Qld(+) power α 662.77 30.73 21.56*** 0.97 0.095 9.3*** 1.29
   lnx -86.90 4.05 -21.47***     
SA exponential α 75.16 2.93 25.68*** 0.94 0.103 0.13 1.33
   x -0.04 0.001 -24.76***     
WA power α 525.37 45.83 11.46*** 0.91 0.128 12.75*** 0.92
   lnx -68.81 6.03 -11.40***     
Tas. power α 519.00 37.03 14.02*** 0.84 0.172 0.13 20.43***
   lnx -67.96 4.88 -13.94***     
ACT exponential α 92.75 7.10 13.06*** 0.81 0.25 1.85 0.26
   x -0.05 0.00 -12.76***     
NT exponential α 59.01 5.52 10.70*** 0.73 0.195 0.58 0.30
   x -0.03 0.002 -10.05***     
1992-2009         
Australia(■) exponential α 62.6 3.09 20.29*** 0.96 0.034 0.05 0.73
   x -0.03 0.001 -19.58***     
NSW exponential α 67.76 6.25 10.85*** 0.87 0.069 0.05 9.74***
   x -0.03 0.003 -10.51***     
Vic.(■) exponential α 60.92 7.36 8.27*** 0.80 0.08 2.19 1.33
   x -0.03 0.00 -8.00***     
Qld(■ +) power α 542.62 83.62 6.49*** 0.78 0.102 5.86** 1.38
   lnx -71.09 11.00 -6.46***     
SA(■) exponential α 72.4 9.77 7.41*** 0.76 0.107 1.2 1.28
   x -0.04 0.004 -7.18***     
WA(■) power α 339.80 74.91 4.54*** 0.56 0.108 1.5 0.19
   lnx -44.39 9.86 -4.50***     
Tas. power α 223.70 146.77 1.52 0.12 0.212 0.74 1.72
   lnx -29.12 19.31 -1.51     
ACT(■) exponential α 60.22 25.88 2.33** 0.24 0.28 0.03 0.11
   x -0.03 0.01 -2.27**     
NT(■) exponential α 53.15 21.24 2.50** 0.26 0.234 0.5 0.21
   x -0.02 0.01 -2.35**     
  1. Notes: a α indicates the natural logarithm of the constant; b Std. Error indicates the standard error of the estimator; c SE is the standard error of the regression; d BG is the Obs* R-squared statistic from the Breusch-Godfrey Lagrange multiplier test for serial correlation (1 lag); e J-B is the statistic from the Jarque-Bera test for the normality of the residuals. The preferred model for each jurisdiction is indicated by (■) and (+) indicates the equation has been estimated using the Newey-West heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance estimator. ***, ** and * indicate statistical significance at 1, 5, and 10 percent respectively. Other abbreviations are as defined in the text.