Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

BMC Public Health

Table 4 Estimated number of fatalities by jurisdiction that would enable the target to be met in 2010

	Projected Population June 2010^a	Estimated number of fatalities equal to 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population in 2010	Average annual number of fatalities, 2007-2009	Percentage difference between average annual fatalities, 2007-2009, and estimated target (maximum) number of fatalities in 2010^b
Aust.	22,410,783	1,255	1,518	17
NSW	7,254,446	406	423	4
Vic.	5,563,364	312	310	(0.5)
Qld	4,538,829	254	339	25
SA	1,645,305	92	114	19
WA	2,308,890	129	214	40
Tas.	508,240	28	50	43
ACT	358,590	20	13	(55)
NT	230,942	13	55	77

Notes: ^a Population projections per jurisdiction for June 2010 have been estimated using data on 'estimated resident populations' for September and December 2008, and March, June and September 2009 [68]. Percentage changes in these data were calculated and the average quarterly percent changes from September 2008 to September 2009 were determined. These were applied to the respective population estimates for September 2009 to calculate population estimates for December 2009. To calculate population estimates for June 2010, this process was repeated with the respective average quarterly percent changes sequentially applied to the newly-derived population estimates for December 2009, and then for March 2010. Projected population estimates for the various jurisdictions for June 2010 were published in 2008 [69] but recent estimates of the estimated resident populations for September 2009, published in March 2010, have, in some cases, surpassed these earlier estimates for June 2010. As it is not anticipated that the populations will reduce in the near-term, these alternative estimates have been calculated and used (as outlined), in preference to the estimates published in 2008. ^b The percentage difference data in parentheses indicate that the average number of annual fatalities, based on data for 2007 to 2009, is less than the estimated number of fatalities in 2010 that would meet the national target rate.

ISSN: 1471-2458