From: Using population attributable risk to choose HIV prevention strategies in men who have sex with men
Risk factor | PAR (95% CI) Crude model | PAR (95% CI) Adjusted model | Average annual number of HIV cases | Average lifetime HIV costs (range)(1)AUD$million, 2010 dollars | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  | 1% discounting | 3% discounting | 5% discounting |
All risk factors | Â | 0.94 (0.82,0.98) | 658 | 448 (416-487) | 283 (257-314) | 186 (165-212) |
UAI by sexual position (2) | 0.78 (0.69,0.89) | 0.73 (0.66,0.85) | 511 | 348 (323-378) | 220 (200-244) | 144 (128-165) |
Insertive UAI only (strategic positioning) | 0.12 (0.07,0.19) | 0.04 (0.02,0.10) | 28 | 19 (18-21) | 12 (11-13) | 8 (7-9) |
Receptive UAI | 0.66 (0.54,0.76) | 0.69 (0.58,0.78) | 483 | 329 (305-357) | 208 (189-231) | 136 (121-156) |
Receptive with withdrawal | 0.21 (0.16,0.28) | 0.28 (0.20,0.37) | 196 | 134 (124-145) | 84 (77-94) | 55 (49-63) |
Receptive with ejaculation | 0.45 (0.35,0.55) | 0.41 (0.32,0.51) | 287 | 196 (182-212) | 123 (112-137) | 81 (72-92) |
Circumcision status (3) | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Uncircumcision | 0.08 (0.04,0.16) | 0.07 (0.03,0.15) | 49 | 33 (31-36) | 21 (19-23) | 14 (12-16) |
Number of sexual partners | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
10+ casual sexual partners in the last 6 m | 0.26 (0.18,0.36) | 0.25 (0.14,0.42) | 175 | 119 (111-129) | 75 (68-84) | 49 (44-56) |
STIs (4) | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Anal warts between study visits | 0.14 (0.10,0.18) | 0.12 (0.08,0.18) | 84 | 57 (53-62) | 36 (33-40) | 24 (21-27) |
Anal gonorrhoea at study visit | 0.06 (0.04,0.07) | 0.02 (0.01,0.03) | 14 | 10 (9-10) | 6 (5-7) | 4 (4-5) |