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Table 4 Results from Different Mass Gathering Scenarios (Initial R0 = 1.8)

From: The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model

% population traveling (p)

Traveling Period

Start Duration

Resulting R0

Peak Prevalence

Peak Day

Total Attack Rate

 

Start

Duration

    

p = 1%

Day 30

0.5

1.80

5.99%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

1

1.80

5.99%

51

68.4%

 

Day 30

2

1.80

6.00%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

3

1.80

6.00%

50

68.4%

 

Day 45

0.5

1.80

5.99%

51

68.4%

 

Day 45

1

1.80

6.00%

51

68.4%

 

Day 45

2

1.80

5.99%

51

68.4%

 

Day 45

3

1.80

5.96%

51

68.4%

p = 5%

Day 30

0.5

1.80

6.01%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

1

1.80

6.01%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

2

1.80

6.03%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

3

1.80

6.10%

51

68.4%

 

Day 45

0.5

1.80

6.04%

51

68.4%

 

Day 45

1

1.80

6.05%

50

68.6%

 

Day 45

2

1.81

6.09%

51

68.7%

 

Day 45

3

1.80

5.94%

51

68.4%

p = 10%

Day 30

0.5

1.80

6.03%

51

68.4%

 

Day 30

1

1.80

6.08%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

2

1.80

6.12%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

3

1.80

6.17%

51

68.4%

 

Day 45

0.5

1.80

6.05%

51

68.5%

 

Day 45

1

1.81

6.20%

50

68.6%

 

Day 45

2

1.80

6.07%

51

68.5%

 

Day 45

3

1.80

5.99%

51

68.4%

p = 25%

Day 30

0.5

1.80

6.08%

50

68.4%

 

Day 30

1

1.81

6.16%

50

68.5%

 

Day 30

2

1.82

6.31%

50

68.6%

 

Day 30

3

1.82

6.40%

50

68.5%

 

Day 45

0.5

1.82

6.20%

51

68.8%

 

Day 45

1

1.83

6.49%

50

69.3%

 

Day 45

2

1.83

6.58%

51

69.5%

 

Day 45

3

1.82

6.21%

53

68.6%

Baseline

1.80

5.99%

50

68.4%

  1. The table shows the total attack rate (i.e., proportion of population that has ever been infected), the peak prevalence day and value in the non-Holiday scenarios, with several combinations of values for l (duration of the traveling/mass traveling period) and p (the proportion of the population traveling/gathering) when the initial R0 equals to 1.8. The resulting R0 values (after adding the traveling/mass gathering period) are obtained from the baseline scenarios (without traveling/gathering) to match the peak prevalence and the total attack rate showed in this table. The standard deviation is 0.08-0.15% for the peak prevalence and is 0.07-0.18% for the total attack rate.
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BMC Public Health

ISSN: 1471-2458

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