The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model

BMC Public Health

Table 3 Results from Different Mass Gathering Scenarios (Initial R0 = 1.3)

% population traveling (p)	Traveling Period Start Duration		Resulting R₀	Peak Prevalence	Peak Day	Total Attack Rate
p = 1%	Day 60	0.5	1.30	0.96%	98	32.5%
	Day 60	1	1.30	0.97%	99	32.5%
	Day 60	2	1.30	0.96%	98	32.8%
	Day 60	3	1.30	0.98%	98	32.9%
	Day 90	0.5	1.30	0.96%	97	32.5%
	Day 90	1	1.30	0.97%	98	32.6%
	Day 90	2	1.30	0.98%	97	32.8%
	Day 90	3	1.30	0.98%	97	32.8%
p = 5%	Day 60	0.5	1.30	0.97%	96	32.6%
	Day 60	1	1.30	0.98%	97	32.6%
	Day 60	2	1.30	0.98%	97	32.8%
	Day 60	3	1.30	1.00%	96	32.9%
	Day 90	0.5	1.30	0.98%	97	32.8%
	Day 90	1	1.30	0.98%	96	32.7%
	Day 90	2	1.31	1.00%	99	33.1%
	Day 90	3	1.30	0.97%	101	32.7%
p = 10%	Day 60	0.5	1.30	0.98%	96	32.8%
	Day 60	1	1.30	0.98%	96	32.7%
	Day 60	2	1.30	0.99%	95	32.9%
	Day 60	3	1.30	1.01%	97	32.9%
	Day 90	0.5	1.30	0.99%	98	32.8%
	Day 90	1	1.31	1.00%	97	33.1%
	Day 90	2	1.31	1.02%	99	33.1%
	Day 90	3	1.30	0.98%	99	32.8%
p = 25%	Day 60	0.5	1.30	0.98%	97	32.8%
	Day 60	1	1.30	1.00%	97	32.7%
	Day 60	2	1.31	1.05%	94	33.2%
	Day 60	3	1.30	1.03%	99	32.7%
	Day 90	0.5	1.31	1.04%	98	33.1%
	Day 90	1	1.31	1.07%	99	33.3%
	Day 90	2	1.32	1.11%	99	33.7%
	Day 90	3	1.31	1.02%	99	33.0%
Baseline			1.30	0.96%	94	32.4%

The table shows the total attack rate (i.e., proportion of population that has ever been infected), the peak prevalence day and value in the non-Holiday scenarios, with several combinations of values for l (duration of the traveling/mass traveling period) and p (the proportion of the population traveling/gathering) when the initial R₀ equals to 1.3. The resulting R₀ values (after adding the traveling/mass gathering period) are obtained from the baseline scenarios (without traveling/gathering) to match the peak prevalence and the total attack rate showed in this table. The standard deviation is 0.02-0.05% for the peak prevalence and is 0.22-0.41% for the total attack rate.

ISSN: 1471-2458