Table 1 Key Model Parameters

p_A

Probability of infected individual remaining asymptomatic throughout course of infection

0.4 for working adults, 0.25 for others

[29, 30, 49, 52]

p_H

Probability of symptomatic individual requiring hospitalization

0.18 for ages 0-5, 0.06 for ages 6-64, 0.12 for ages 65+

[29, 30]

p_D

Probability of hospitalized individual not surviving

0.344 for ages 0-5, 0.172 for ages 6+

[30, 53]

Duration of E+ I_P

Duration of exposed and presymptomatic stages

Weibull distribution with mean 1.48 and standard deviation 0.47, and offset 0.5

[30, 39]

Duration of I_P

Duration of presymptomatic stage

0.5 (constant)

[30, 39]

Duration of I_S

Duration of symptomatic stage

Exponential distribution with mean 2.7313 (mean = 7 in the sensitivity analysis)

[30, 41, 42]

Duration of I_A

Duration of asymptomatic stage

Exponential distribution with mean 1.63878 (mean = 7 in the sensitivity analysis)

[30, 41, 42]

Duration of I_H

Duration of hospitalization

Exponential distribution with mean 14

[30, 39]

Household Size

Number of individuals in each household

1 person: 10.33%; 2 persons 23.55%; 3 persons: 20.45%; 4 persons: 23.00%;

5 persons: 12.79%;

6 persons: 5.91%;

7 persons: 3.97%.

[28]

School Classroom Size

Number of individuals in each classroom

Uniform distribution (9,19) for ages 0-5; uniform distribution (15,25) for ages 6-11; and uniform distribution (25,35) for ages 12-18

[30, 31]

Workplace Size

Number of individuals in each workplace

Poisson distribution with mean 20 (maximum 1000)

[29, 30]

Community Size

Number of people in each census tract (1615 census tracts in the state of Georgia)

Maximum = 29341, minimum = 218

[28]

p%

Proportion of the population that attends mass gatherings or travels during the experiments

1%, 5%, 10%, and 25% for the non-Holiday scenarios; 25% and 50% for the Holiday scenarios

[32–37, 43, 44]

Initial R₀

Reproductive rate (average number of secondary cases generated by each infected individual) for each experiment before social mixing changes are introduced

1.3, 1.5, and 1.8

[11, 20, 29, 30, 39]

Resulting R₀

Reproductive rate (average number of secondary cases generated by each infected individual) for each experiment after social mixing changes are introduced

See Tables 2-4

θ

Proportion of transmissions that occur at presymptomatic/asymptomatic stage

0.3

[30]

ω

Proportion of infections generated by individuals who are asymptomatic

0.15

[30]

γ

Proportion of transmissions that occur outside the households

0.7

[11]

δ

Proportion of transmissions outside the home that occur in the community

0.5

[11]