Estimating the risk of rabies transmission to humans in the U.S.: a delphi analysis

BMC Public Health

Table 2 Estimates of the Risk of Rabies Transmission^a.

Scenario	Exposure ^b	25^thpercentile	50^thpercentile	75^thpercentile	Range	Recommend PEP (% "yes")^c
1	Skunk (bite)	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.1 - 0.01	100
2	Bat (unk)	0.0001	0.001	0.001	0.01 - 0.000001	100
3	Dog (bite)	0.00001	0.00001	0.0001	0.001 - 0.00001	95
4	Dog (lick)	0.000001	0.000001	0.000001	0.00001 - 0.000001	10
5	Cat (bite)	0.0001	0.001	0.001	0.01 - 0.00001	100
6	Cat (lick)	0.000001	0.000001	0.000001	0.0001 - 0.000001	5
7	Human (unk)	0.000001	0.000001	0.000001	0.00001 -0.000001	20

^aStudy participants were asked to estimate the probability of developing rabies without rabies post-exposure prophylaxis for each indicated potential exposure scenario
^bbite - superficial laceration, area not washed or cleaned; lick - over skin with recent superficial scratches, area not washed or cleaned; unk - unknown if true exposure, no obvious bites, scratches, or direct contact with bodily fluids
^cPercentage of panel members recommending rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for the indicated scenario

ISSN: 1471-2458