Table 3 Projected burden of disease between March 2020 and February 2022 and the incremental burden of disease for the vaccine uptake scenarios under study. We did not account for adjusted social contact behaviour in the scenarios due to increased/reduced virus circulation and disease morbidity, or to (non-)vaccination. The table presents the reported and incremental vaccine uptake and results are provided in terms of means and corresponding 95% credible interval. Stochastic differences between the baseline and altered vaccine uptake scenario can give rise to the estimation of counterintuitive incremental effects. This model artefact is visible in some of the credible intervals
| Â | Burden of disease from March 2020 until Feb 2022 | Incremental results with increased adult booster dose uptake | Incremental results with increased vaccine uptake 5-11y in 2021 | Incremental results with reduced adult booster dose uptake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | 29,053 [27,817;30,090] | -310 [-616;-2] | -325 [-723;36] | +1,874 [2,522;1,434] |
ICU admissions | 30,544 [29,700;31,243] | -532 [-950;-70] | -703 [-1,350;-33] | +3,098 [4,066;2,440] |
Hospital admissions | 139,506 [135,241;142,680] | -4,019 [-7,068;-866] | -3,171 [-8,101;364] | +20,035 [27,406;15,048] |
Mild infections | 4,577,231 [4,201,783;5,008,672] | -217,773 [-416,007;-48,904] | -50,969 [-365,957;145,356] | +638,486 [1,031,606;381,605] |
Total Infections | 8,906,170 [8,196,824;9,745,087] | -418,233 [-806,964;-86,812] | -116,518 [-736,416;269,100] | +1,173,796 [1,916,998;683,533] |
QALYs lost | 259,687 [250,019;266,080] | -4,512 [-8,505;-361] | -3,809 [-10,717;1,341] | +21,057 [15,225;31,582] |
Vaccine Uptake (doses) | 25,671,309 | +1,227,329 | +905,113 | -2,896,104 |
\(\frac{\mathbf {QALY\ gain\ (mean)}}{\mathbf {Uptake\ (doses)}}\) | - | 0.0037 | 0.0042 | 0.0054 |