Skip to main content

Table 3 Estimated size of known populations, compared with official statistics

From: Size estimation of key populations and ‘bridge populations’ based on the network scale-up method in Ukraine

Group Name

Data Source

Official Size

Initial Model

Final Model

Estimated Size

Estimated/Real Ratio

Estimated Size

Estimated/Real Ratio

Men aged 20 to 29

SSCU

2,477,429

7,467,254

3.0

6,600,253

2.7

Men aged 15 to 17

SSCU

589,638

2,116,213

3.6

  

Men aged 70 and older

SSCU

1,480,459

1,861,517

1.3

1,645,382

1.1

Women aged 20 to 29

SSCU

2,346,114

5,661,998

2.4

5,004,600

2.1

Women aged 15 to 17

SSCU

557,536

1,928,096

3.5

  

Women aged 70 and older

SSCU

3,280,073

1,973,938

0.6

1,744,749

0.5

Children (aged 10–13, boys and girls)

SSCU

1,827,827

2,193,101

1.2

1,938,467

1.1

People who died in 2019

SSCU

581,114

598,463

1.0

528,977

0.9

Individuals with disabilities

SSCU

1,123,098

7,467,254

0.6

  

Men named Pavel (aged 14 and older)

Responses to the questionnaire1

336,494

513,859

1.5

454,196

1.3

Women named Oksana (aged 14 and older)

Responses to the questionnaire

610,031

754,303

1.2

666,723

1.1

Individuals completing postgraduate or doctoral programs in the last 5 years (regardless of dissertation defense)

SSCU

32,728

267,506

8.2

  

Judges

Higher Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine

5,306

123,004

23.2

  

Men officially divorced in 2019

SSCU

138,005

94,412

0.7

83,450

0.6

Women who gave birth to a child in 2019

SSCU

310,605

309,925

1.0

273,941

0.9

Individuals who died from malignant neoplasms (cancer) in 2019

SSCU

77,481

196,006

2.5

  

Individuals who had COVID-19 in the last 6 months

Ministry of Health of Ukraine

123,303

132,888

1.1

117,458

1.0

Physicians of any specialty

Center for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine

154,265

1,345,324

8.7

  

Individuals who owned a motorcycle/scooter

SSCU

866,224

644,259

0.7

569,456

0.7

Children attending kindergartens or nurseries

SSCU

1,230,398

1,226,912

1.0

1,084,459

0.9

Individuals aged 14 and older not using the Internet (stationary and mobile)

Responses to the questionnaire

5,545,904

362,069

0.1

  

Individuals who visited the United States in 2019

Responses to the questionnaire

348,911

120,533

0.3

  

Individuals who died during the military conflict in eastern Ukraine in the last 5 years

Personnel Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

5,669

220,826

39.0

  

Total E/R ratio

4.6

1.1

  1. 1 The size of certain ‘visible’ populations, for which official statistical data were not available or were outdated, was determined by surveying respondents about their affiliation with these populations. The validity of this approach has been previously demonstrated through modelling [43].
  2. SSCU, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine