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Table 1 The comparisons of time series components between the series of mild and severe HFMD cases

From: Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China

Components

Mild HFMD cases

Severe HFMD cases

ratio/differencea

p-value*

Long-term linear trend

 Biennial increase (%)

124.46 (122.80, 126.14)

91.20 (89.69, 92.74)

1.36 (1.34,1.39)

<0.001

Semi-annual cycle

 peak value

1.04 (1.00,1.07)

0.87 (0.82,0.93)

1.19 (1.11,1.27)

<0.001

 peak time (days)

134.7 (133.77,135.68)

131.48 (129.83,133.13)

3.21 (1.42,5.08)

<0.001

Eight-monthly cycle

 peak value

0.24 (0.20,0.27)

0.21 (0.16,0.26)

1.14 (0.88,1.52)

0.081

 peak time (days)

97.47 (91.34,103.51)

74.78 (64.86,83.81)

22.69 (11.03,34.24)

0.001

Annual cycle

 peak value

1.78 (1.73,1.83)

3.08 (2.97,3.19)

0.58 (0.55,0.60)

<0.001

 peak time (days)

183.08 (181.79,184,48)

176.52 (175.27,177.77)

6.56 (4.89,8.52)

<0.001

Biennial cycle

 peak value

0.40 (0.36,0.43)

0.80 (0.75,0.86)

0.49 (0.44,0.56)

<0.001

 peak time (days)

466.49 (456.14,477.35)

492.55 (483.99,502.11)

−26.06 (−40.96,−11.92)

<0.001

First year cycle of the overall periodic curve

 Start time (days)

36 (35,38)

27 (25,29)

9 (7,11)

<0.001

 Major peak time (days)

155 (153,156)

156 (155,158)

−1 (−3,0)

0.012

 Major peak value

1.23 (1.19,1.28)

2.10 (2.00,2.19)

0.59 (0.56,0.62)

<0.001

 Minor peak time (days)

288 (284,292)

-

-

-

 Minor peak value

0.44 (0.42,0.47)

-

-

-

Second year cycle of the overall periodic curve

 Start time (days)

391 (390,392)

377 (375,379)

14 (11,16)

<0.001

 Major peak time (days)

510 (509,511)

513 (512,514)

−3 (−4,−1)

<0.001

 Major peak value

1.90 (1.85,1.96)

4.20 (4.07,4.34)

0.45 (0.43,0.47)

<0.001

 Minor peak time (days)

661 (659,664)

-

-

-

 Minor peak value

0.42 (0.36,0.44)

-

-

-

  1. The 95 % confidence interval of model estimates were given in the following bracket
  2. ato compare two series, we calculated the relative difference (i.e. the ratio of mild case to severe case) for the biennial increase and the peak value of cycles, whereas the absolute difference (i.e. mild case minus severe cases) was calculated for the start and peak timing. We applied a quasi-Poisson model to estimate the time series components in which a log function is used to link the observed values and linear predictor. Therefore, the ratio of biennial increase and peak value between two series is equivalent to the absolute difference between their related linear predictors. However, the start and peak timing will not be affected by the log link function
  3. *The p-value was calculated to test the equality of time series components between two series, with the null hypothesis of no difference (i.e. the ratio equals 1 or difference equals to 0)