Table 2 Estimated attributable fractions (AF), and mean, 10th percentile and 90th percentile of the distribution of the attributable deaths (AD) per year in Skopje for the time periods 1986–2005, 2026–2045 and 2081–2100, under different climate models and population growth models
From: Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje
|  | 1986–2005 | 2026–2045 | 2081–2100 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Climate modela | Climate model | Climate model | ||||
| Â | Median | Median | Minimal | Maximal | Median | Minimal | Maximal |
Average AF | 3.3Â % | 5.8Â % | 4.7Â % | 6.6Â % | 9.8Â % | 8.1Â % | 13.2Â % |
Population model | Attributable Deaths/year | ||||||
Exponential | 58 (36; 85) | 124 (84; 170) | 100 (63; 143) | 125 (80; 185) | 272 (163; 388) | 223 (148; 301) | 366 (232; 512) |
Logistic K = 700,000 | 55 (34; 81) | 117 (80; 161) | 95 (60; 135) | 118 (75; 174) | 226 (137; 321) | 186 (123; 250) | 304 (194; 422) |
Logistic K = 800,000 | 55 (34; 81) | 117 (80; 161) | 95 (60; 135) | 118 (75; 174) | 235 (142; 334) | 193 (128; 260) | 316 (201; 439) |
Logistic K = 900,000 | 55 (34; 81) | 117 (80; 161) | 95 (60; 135) | 118 (75; 174) | 240 (145; 341) | 197 (131; 265) | 323 (206; 449) |
Logistic K = 1,000,000 | 55 (34; 81) | 117 (80; 162) | 95 (60; 136) | 119 (76; 176) | 244 (147; 346) | 200 (132; 269) | 327 (208; 456) |