Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza

Table 1 Characteristics of baseline epidemics

Characteristic	R₀
	1.5		2.5		3.5
	Mean	S.D.	mean	S.D.	mean	S.D
Final infection rate (%)	39.7	1.47	79.7	0.52	91.2	0.24
Final attack rate (%)	33.3	1.2	64.8	0.41	73.2	0.29
Peak symptomatic population (%)	4.8	0.41	25.7	0.55	43.0	0.71
Peak daily attack rate (per 10,000)	87	8	481	21	856	32
Peak attack day	57	5.6	29	2.0	20.	1.7
Serial interval	2.97	0.01	2.74	0.01	2.45	0.01

This table gives characteristics of simulated baseline epidemics (that is, epidemics where no intervention measures were applied) with R₀ values of 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5. The mean and standard deviation (S.D.) are for 40 independent randomly seeded simulation runes.

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