Group: | Â | Baseline (n = 7013) | Year 10 (n = 3145) | Age standardised | Age matched | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  | No | (%) | No | (%) | OR†| 95% C.I. | OR†| 95% C.I. |
Age (years) | 70–74 | 366 | (7) | 32 | (1) | 7.2 | (4.9–10.6) | Matched | |
 | 75–79 | 2883 | (40) | 1238 | (43) | 1.0 |  |  |  |
 | 80–84 | 2256 | (31) | 1016 | (35) | 0.8 | (0.7–0.9) |  |  |
 | 85+ | 1508 | (21) | 859 | (21) | 0.7 | (0.6–0.8) |  |  |
Centre | Cambridgeshire | 1,385 | (19) | 645 | (21) | 0.8 | (0.6–0.9) | Matched | |
 | Gwynedd | 1,541 | (21) | 721 | (23) | 0.8 | (0.7–0.9) |  |  |
 | Newcastle | 1,299 | (19) | 575 | (18) | 1.0 | (0.8–1.1) |  |  |
 | Nottingham | 1,318 | (18) | 511 | (16) | 1.0 | (0.9–1.2) |  |  |
 | Oxford | 1,470 | (23) | 693 | (21) | 1.0 |  |  |  |
Women | Women | 4,540 | (65) | 1,907 | (60) | Not included | Not included | ||
Accomodation: | Own Home | 5,737 | (82) | 2,693 | (87) | 1.0 | Â | Not included | |
 | Warden controlled | 708 | (10) | 261 | (8) | 1.3 | (1.1–1.6) |  |  |
 | Residential home | 537 | (8) | 184 | (5) | 1.0 | (0.7–1.3) |  |  |
Marital status | Married/cohabiting | 2,614 | (39) | 1,237 | (41) | 1.0 | Â | 1.0 | Â |
 | Single | 622 | (9) | 227 | (7) | 1.3 | (1.0–1.6) | 1.4 | (1.1–1.8) |
 | Widowed | 3,458 | (50) | 1,547 | (48) | 1.2 | (1.0–1.3) | 1.2 | (1.1–1.4) |
 | Divorced/Separated | 154 | (2) | 109 | (4) | 0.6 | (0.5–0.9) | 0.6 | (0.4–0.9) |
Manual social class | 3,758 | (57) | 1,543 | (50) | Not included | Not included | |||
Years of education <=9 | 4,306 | (64) | 1,723 | (55) | 1.3 | (1.2–1.5) | 1.4 | (1.2–1.6) | |
MMSE | Incomplete | 218 | (3) | 41 | (1) | 5.6 | (2.6–11.7) | 6.8 | (2.9–15.7) |
 | <= 21 | 630 | (9) | 189 | (5) | 2.9 | (2.0–4.1) | 2.9 | (2.1–4.0) |
 | 22–25 | 745 | (10) | 222 | (7) | 2.1 | (1.7–2.6) | 2.3 | (1.8–2.8) |
 | 26–28 | 2004 | (29) | 682 | (21) | 1.8 | (1.6–2.0) | 1.9 | (1.7–2.2) |
 | 29–30 | 3416 | (49) | 2011 | (66) | 1.0 |  | 1.0 |  |
Screening AGECAT O3+ | 699 | (10) | 242 | (7) | 0.8 | (0.6–1.0) | Not included | ||
Family history of dementia | 687 | (10) | 505 | (16) | 0.6 | (0.5–0.7) | 0.6 | (0.5–0.7) | |
Depression ever | 443 | (7) | 447 | (15) | 0.4 | (0.3–0.5) | 0.4 | (0.3–0.5) | |
Disability | No ADL-IADL disability | 3,832 | (56) | 1,575 | (54) | 1.0 | Â | 1.0 | Â |
 | IADL disability only | 1,192 | (17) | 762 | (25) | 0.6 | (0.6–0.7) | 0.6 | (0.5–0.7) |
 | ADL disability | 1,843 | (26) | 700 | (21) | 0.8 | (0.7–0.9) | 0.8 | (0.7–1.0) |
Townsend ADL 11+ | 1,269 | (19) | 608 | (19) | Not included | Not included | |||
Stroke | Â | 595 | (9) | 309 | (10) | Not included | Not included | ||
More than one cardiovascular disease | 2,836 | (42) | 2,000 | (66) | 0.5 | (0.5–0.6) | 0.5 | (0.5–0.5) | |
Self perceived health | Poor | 1,216 | (18) | 551 | (18) | 0.9 | (0.8–1.1) | 1.0 | (0.9–1.2) |
 | Fair | 3,115 | (47) | 1557 | (53) | 1.0 |  |  | 1.0 |
 | Good | 1,954 | (29) | 747 | (25) | 1.5 | (1.3–1.7) | 1.3 | (1.1–1.5) |
 | Excellent | 382 | (6) | 117 | (4) | 1.9 | (1.4–2.4) | 1.7 | (1.3–2.3) |
Sight or hearing problem | 2,773 | (40) | 1,020 | (31) | 1.6 | (1.5–1.8) | 1.6 | (1.4–1.8) | |
Ever smoked |  | 2,697 | (60) | 2,044 | (66) | 0.8 | (0.7–0.9) | 0.8 | (0.7–0.9) |
Alcohol | Don't drink | 1,012 | (17) | 289 | (10) | 1.6 | (1.3–1.8) | 1.7 | (1.4–2.1) |
 | Drink not to excess | 4,016 | (67) | 2028 | (71) | 1.0 |  | 1.0 |  |
 | Drink evidence of excess | 968 | (16) | 532 | (19) | 0.9 | (0.8–1.1) | 0.9 | (0.8–1.1) |