Table 4 Containment of severe smallpox at different levels of contact finding. The first three columns are assumed levels for the probability of finding a household contact, the probability of finding a workplace/social (W/S) contact, and for the number of contact tracings/ring vaccinations possible per day; the last two columns express (as percentages) the resulting probability of containment given the assumed contact finding probabilities and contact tracing capacities; two containment probabilities are given: the containment probability when only contacts of cases are traced (first column, "Contacts"), and the containment probability when contacts of contacts of cases are traced in addition to the contacts of cases (second column, "Contacts of Contacts"). All other parameters are the same as in Figure 3A.
Probability of finding | Number of Ring vacc. per day | Containment Contacts | Probability when Tracing Contacts of contacts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Household contacts | W/S contacts | |||
0.95 | 0.85 | 50 | 99.1% | 97.9% |
0.95 | 0.85 | 100 | 99.3% | 100.0% |
0.95 | 0.85 | 200 | 99.1% | 100.0% |
0.9 | 0.8 | 50 | 95.7% | 95.8% |
0.9 | 0.8 | 100 | 95.6% | 99.9% |
0.9 | 0.8 | 200 | 95.4% | 100.0% |
0.85 | 0.75 | 50 | 86.0% | 93.3% |
0.85 | 0.75 | 100 | 86.1% | 99.1% |
0.85 | 0.75 | 200 | 86.3% | 99.2% |
0.75 | 0.6 | 50 | 52.1% | 72.0% |
0.75 | 0.6 | 100 | 51.5% | 78.5% |
0.75 | 0.6 | 200 | 53.0% | 78.6% |