Table 1 Parameter values for base case and sensitivity analyses
Parameter range | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description | Base | Low | High | Distribution | Source |
Probabilities | |||||
Influenza and PPSVa vaccination | Figure 2 | -50% | +50% | Triangle | [Figure 2] |
Vaccination side effects (local reactions) | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.20 | Beta | [23] |
Influenza | |||||
Annual risk | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.21 | Beta | [24] |
Vaccine effectiveness | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.74 | Beta | [25] |
Clinic visit, given influenza | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.72 | Beta | [26] |
Hospitalization, given influenza | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 | Beta | [26] |
Increased risk of IPDb given influenza | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.13 | Beta | [24] |
Death given influenza hospitalization | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.28 | Beta | |
IPD | |||||
Incidence, disability, mortality | Table 2 | -20% | +20% | Triangular | [3], Estimate |
Immunocompromised in cohort (%) | Table 2 | -20% | +20% | Triangular | [3], Estimate |
Vaccine serotype coverage (%) | Table 2 | -20% | +20% | Triangular | [3], Estimate |
PPSV vaccine effectiveness (yr post-vaccination) | Triangular | [27] | |||
Year 1 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.90 | ||
Year 5 | 0.58 | 0.31 | 0.80 | ||
Year 10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | ||
Excess mortality due to disability (per year) | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | Triangular | [24] |
Costs | |||||
Vaccination program, per targeted elder per year | Figure 2 | -50% | +50% | Triangular | [Figure 2] |
Influenza vaccine and administration | $20.97 | $13.11 | $28.83 | Gamma | [28] |
PPSV and administration | $33.47 | $16.74 | $55.79 | Gamma | [24] |
Vaccine side effect treatment | $0.76 | $0.68 | $4.01 | Gamma | [28] |
Influenza and IPD symptomatic treatment | $5.00 | $0.00 | $10.00 | Gamma | [Estimate] |
Influenza | |||||
Seeking clinic care | $67.19 | $56.62 | $77.76 | Gamma | [28] |
Clinic visit | $158.72 | $120.51 | $196.92 | Gamma | [28] |
Hospitalization without death | $5,001 | $4,714 | $5,406 | Gamma | [28] |
Hospitalization with death | $10,244 | $9,432 | $11,173 | Gamma | [28] |
IPD | |||||
Hospitalization without death | $27,357 | $25,224 | $30,093 | Gamma | [24] |
Hospitalization with death | $37,688 | $33,919 | $41,458 | Gamma | [24] |
Disability (annual) | $12,683 | $10,451 | $14,914 | Gamma | [29] |
Durations | |||||
Vaccine side effects (days) | 3 | 1 | 8 | Gamma | [30] |
Influenza, outpatient (days) | 7 | 3 | 10 | Gamma | [31] |
Influenza, prior to seeking inpatient care (days) | 2 | 1 | 3 | Gamma | [Estimate] |
Influenza, inpatient (days) | 7 | 4 | 10 | Gamma | [1] |
IPD inpatient (days) | 12 | 9 | 15 | Gamma | [32] |
Utilities | |||||
One year of healthy life for >65 yr old (QALY) | Uniform | ||||
65-70 years | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.81 | ||
70-75 years | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.79 | ||
75-80 years | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.75 | ||
80-85 years | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.68 | ||
>85 years | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.56 | ||
Vaccine side effects | 0.95 | 0.71 | 1.00 | Uniform | [28] |
Influenza, outpatient | 0.65 | 0.49 | 0.81 | Uniform | [28] |
Influenza, inpatient | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.63 | Uniform | [28] |
IPD, inpatient | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.25 | Uniform | [32] |
IPD, disabled | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.60 | Uniform | [35], Estimate |