Figure 3

Image exported from EPIPOI showing the exclusion of two years from the data (2009–2010, highlighted in yellow). The 95% confidence intervals of the model are shown in addition to the fitted model. Observations exceeding these limits (e.g. January and February 2002), suggest epidemics that would not be expected based on the seasonal and overall trend patterns (e.g., the 2009 influenza pandemic, [5]).