Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

Xue, Yiting; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-962

BMC Public Health

Table 3 Cost and health outcome according to type and duration of school closure when R ₀ =1.5

From: Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

Target school	Duration (weeks)	Cost of lost learning ($1000)	Lost productivity due to school closure ($1000)	Energy savings ($1000)	Health care costs ($1000)	Lost productivity due to fatal cases ($1000)	Lost productivity due to sickness ($1000)	Total cost ($1000)	QALY gains (compared to no intervention)	Cost per QALY (compared to no intervention)	ICER
0	0	0	0	0	20 591	312 958	101 576	435 125	0
3	6	19 350	0	1 080	19 557	298 239	97 846	433 912	507	−2 395
3	7	22 575	0	1 260	19 410	296 139	97 312	434 175	579	−1 641	3 648
3	5	16 125	0	900	19 766	301 213	98 600	434 804	404	−796	Dominated
3	8	25 800	0	1 440	19 318	294 825	96 978	435 481	624	570	28 929
3	4	12 900	0	720	20 008	304 661	99 474	436 323	286	4 193	Dominated
3	1	3 225	0	180	20 509	311 792	101 278	436 625	40	37 316	Dominated
3	9	29 025	0	1 620	19 264	294 064	96 784	437 517	650	3 679	77 819
3	3	9 675	0	540	20 235	307 897	100 293	437 560	174	13 962	Dominated
3	2	6 450	0	360	20 403	310 287	100 897	437 678	92	27 727	Dominated
3	10	32 250	0	1 800	19 237	293 672	96 684	440 043	664	7 412	187 991
2	1	0	26 795	188	20 495	311 614	101 261	459 977	47	531 474
1	1	0	36 194	174	20 530	312 120	101 383	470 054	29	1 193 056
2	2	0	53 591	376	20 385	310 094	100 909	484 603	100	496 745
4	1	0	62 989	362	20 440	310 857	101 085	495 009	73	817 647
5	1	3 225	62 989	542	20 367	309 817	100 816	496 672	109	564 499
1	2	0	72 388	348	20 453	311 044	101 138	504 674	67	1 039 847
2	3	0	80 386	564	20 210	307 651	100 342	508 024	185	395 026
2	4	0	107 181	752	19 950	304 039	99 504	529 922	310	305 814
1	3	0	108 582	522	20 323	309 257	100 729	538 369	129	798 460
2	5	0	133 976	940	19 645	299 793	98 516	550 991	457	253 333
4	2	0	125 979	724	20 263	308 401	100 517	554 436	159	751 538
5	2	6 450	125 979	1 084	20 109	306 200	99 944	557 598	234	522 386
1	4	0	144 776	696	20 148	306 836	100 173	571 237	214	636 557
2	6	0	160 772	1 128	19 356	295 758	97 575	572 332	597	229 715
2	7	0	187 567	1 316	19 117	292 419	96 793	594 579	713	223 637
1	5	0	180 970	870	19 971	304 374	99 606	604 051	300	563 630
4	3	0	188 968	1 086	19 989	304 590	99 632	612 092	291	607 281
5	3	9 675	188 968	1 626	19 736	300 952	98 673	616 377	416	435 391
2	8	0	214 362	1 504	18 961	290 230	96 279	618 327	789	232 250
1	6	0	217 164	1 044	19 812	302 170	99 095	637 197	377	536 585
2	9	0	241 157	1 692	18 858	288 799	95 942	643 065	838	248 040
4	4	0	251 957	1 448	19 608	299 290	98 394	667 801	476	489 135
2	10	0	267 953	1 880	18 803	288 023	95 759	668 657	865	269 909
1	7	0	253 358	1 218	19 703	300 654	98 742	671 239	429	549 816
5	4	12 900	251 957	2 168	19 239	293 960	96 967	672 854	658	361 133
1	8	0	289 552	1 392	19 639	299 767	98 536	706 101	460	588 611
4	5	0	314 946	1 810	19 151	292 916	96 892	722 096	697	411 700
5	5	16 125	314 946	2 710	18 630	285 363	94 847	727 200	955	305 707
1	9	0	325 746	1 566	19 605	299 302	98 427	741 514	477	642 905
4	6	0	377 936	2 172	18 702	286 631	95 396	776 493	915	373 065
1	10	0	361 940	1 740	19 585	299 025	98 363	777 173	486	703 475
5	6	19 350	377 936	3 252	18 018	276 690	92 681	781 422	1 255	275 997
4	7	0	440 925	2 534	18 330	281 412	94 143	832 277	1 096	362 429
5	7	22 575	440 925	3 794	17 426	268 283	90 555	835 970	1 544	259 543
4	8	0	503 914	2 896	18 058	277 580	93 217	889 873	1 228	370 185
5	8	25 800	503 914	4 336	16 965	261 700	88 870	892 913	1 771	258 490
4	9	0	566 903	3 258	17 885	275 152	92 627	949 309	1 312	391 782
5	9	29 025	566 903	4 878	16 627	256 878	87 624	952 179	1 937	266 957
4	10	0	629 893	3 620	17 789	273 802	92 297	1 010 161	1 359	423 098
5	10	32 250	629 893	5 420	16 386	253 424	86 726	1 013 259	2 056	281 259

Note: The maximum willingness to pay is set to be NOK 500,000 or US$71,500 based on the government guidance²⁸. The most cost-effective option is shown with bold font.

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