From: Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic
School closure of 12 weeks | R0=1.5 | R0=2.0 | R0=2.5 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
outp. | inp. | deaths | AR(%) | outp. | inp. | deaths | AR(%) | outp. | inp. | deaths | AR(%) | |
No intervention | 92779 | 1929 | 584 | 37 | 128932 | 2738 | 844 | 51 | 146088 | 3150 | 983 | 58 |
Scenario A (baseline) | ||||||||||||
K | 87388 | 1846 | 560 | 35 | 123904 | 2673 | 825 | 49 | 141642 | 3098 | 968 | 56 |
P | 83081 | 1779 | 540 | 33 | 121245 | 2638 | 815 | 49 | 140075 | 3080 | 962 | 56 |
S | 85718 | 1813 | 550 | 34 | 123784 | 2665 | 822 | 49 | 142328 | 3101 | 968 | 57 |
K+P | 77605 | 1692 | 514 | 31 | 115823 | 2566 | 793 | 47 | 135161 | 3022 | 945 | 54 |
K+P+S | 69989 | 1559 | 474 | 29 | 109800 | 2477 | 767 | 44 | 130661 | 2962 | 927 | 53 |
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | ||||||||||||
R0=1.5 | R0=2.0 | R0=2.5 | ||||||||||
outp. | inp. | deaths | AR(%) | outp. | inp. | deaths | AR(%) | outp. | inp. | deaths | AR(%) | |
Scenario B | ||||||||||||
K | 85200 | 1798 | 546 | 34 | 122669 | 2645 | 817 | 49 | 140911 | 3082 | 963 | 56 |
P | 79765 | 1707 | 519 | 32 | 119377 | 2597 | 803 | 48 | 138986 | 3056 | 955 | 55 |
S | 85718 | 1813 | 550 | 34 | 123784 | 2665 | 822 | 49 | 142328 | 3101 | 968 | 57 |
K+P | 71608 | 1559 | 475 | 29 | 112224 | 2487 | 770 | 45 | 133028 | 2975 | 932 | 53 |
K+P+S | 64030 | 1423 | 434 | 26 | 105671 | 2387 | 740 | 43 | 128221 | 2910 | 912 | 52 |
Scenario C | ||||||||||||
K | 89954 | 1885 | 572 | 36 | 126502 | 2707 | 835 | 50 | 144110 | 3127 | 976 | 57 |
P | 87441 | 1847 | 560 | 35 | 125354 | 2691 | 830 | 50 | 143677 | 3121 | 974 | 57 |
S | 89346 | 1873 | 568 | 36 | 126696 | 2706 | 835 | 50 | 144607 | 3131 | 977 | 57 |
K+P | 84498 | 1801 | 547 | 34 | 122774 | 2657 | 820 | 49 | 141574 | 3097 | 967 | 56 |
K+P+S | 80744 | 1738 | 528 | 33 | 120292 | 2621 | 810 | 48 | 139934 | 3075 | 961 | 56 |