From: Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic
Mean | Distribution | Parameter | References | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic data | ||||
Population by age | 15 | |||
1--5 years old | 6.63% | |||
6—12 years old | 7.17% | |||
13—19 years old | 6.86% | |||
20—39 years old | 36.65% | |||
40—64 years old | 30.46% | |||
65+ years old | 12.24% | |||
Percentage of adult population affected by school closure: | 15 | |||
kindergarten (1-5 years old) | 4.54% | |||
kindergarten/primary school (1-11 years old) | 10% | |||
Disease parameters | ||||
Basic reproductive number (R 0 ) | 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 | 31; 32; 8 | ||
Mean duration of exposed period | 1.9 days | 17; 18 | ||
Mean duration of infectious period | 7 days (<12 years) 5 days (12+ years) | 17; 18; 19 | ||
Proportion asymptomatic (p) | 33% | |||
Infectivity (last exposed stage) | 50% | 19 | ||
Infectivity (in the five infectious stages) | 100%, 100%, 50%, 30%, 15% | 19;20 | ||
Mixing assumptions | ||||
Scenario A (baseline) | ||||
Reduction in contact rate between dismissed children of same/other age groups | 90%/25% | |||
Reduction in contact rate among care-taking parents and same age group | 0% | |||
Scenario B | ||||
Reduction in contact rate between dismissed children of same/other age groups | 90%/25% | |||
Reduction in contact rate among care-taking parents and same age group | 50% | |||
Scenario C | ||||
Reduction in contact rate between dismissed children of same/other age groups | 50%/10% | |||
Reduction in contact rate among care-taking parents and same age group | 0% | |||
Disease outcomes | ||||
Outcomes per 1000 cases by age groupsa | 25 | |||
Outpatient | (534, 389, 497) | Uniform | ((494-574), (369-410), (487-506)) | |
Inpatient | (4, 8, 29) | ((1-8), (2-13), (21-37)) | ||
Death | (1, 2, 13) | ((0-2),(0-4),(11-15)) | ||
Economic parameters | ||||
Cost of energy saving (1000 US$) | 1 439 | Gammab | α=16; β=90 | Oslo Municipality |
Cost of lost learning (1000 US$) | 25 797 | Gamma | α=16; β=1 612 | Bjørknes private school |
Proportion of productivity loss catching up | 15% | Uniform | range [0: 30%] | |
Average cost per self-care person (US$) | 43 | Normal | σ=3.57 | 26 |
Average cost per out-patient (US$) | 59 | Normal | σ=4.92 | Den norske legeforening |
Average cost per in-patient (US$) | 5 211 | Normal | σ=434 | 26 |
Average wage per day (US$) | 290 | Normal | σ=24 | 15 |