From: Using population attributable risk to choose HIV prevention strategies in men who have sex with men
Risk factor | PAR (95% CI) Crude model | PAR (95% CI) Adjusted model | Average annual number of HIV cases | Average lifetime HIV costs (range)(1)AUD$million, 2010 dollars | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  | 1% discounting | 3% discounting | 5% discounting |
All risk factors | - | 0.91 (0.81,0.97) | 637 | 434 (403-471) | 274 (249-304) | 180 (160-205) |
UAI by HIV status of sexual partners (2) | 0.85 (0.75,0.94) | 0.77 (0.66,0.89) | 539 | 367 (341-399) | 232 (211-257) | 152 (136-174) |
UAI with HIV-negative only (serosorting) | 0.15 (0.11,0.22) | 0.10 (0.07,0.19) | 70 | 48 (44-52) | 30 (27-33) | 20 (18-23) |
UAI with some unknown HIV status | 0.34 (0.27,0.43) | 0.33 (0.26,0.42) | 231 | 157 (146-171) | 99 (90-110) | 65 (58-74) |
UAI with any HIV-positive | 0.36 (0.26,0.45) | 0.34 (0.24,0.44) | 238 | 162 (151-176) | 102 (93-114) | 67 (60-77) |
Circumcision status (3) | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Uncircumcision | 0.08 (0.04,0.16) | 0.07 (0.03,0.14) | 49 | 33 (31-36) | 21 (19-23) | 14 (12-16) |
Number of sexual partners | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
10+ casual sexual partners in the last 6 m | 0.26 (0.18,0.36) | 0.19 (0.09,0.34) | 133 | 91 (84-98) | 57 (52-64) | 38 (33-43) |
STIs (4) | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Anal warts between study visits | 0.14 (0.10,0.18) | 0.13 (0.09,0.19) | 91 | 62 (58-67) | 39 (36-43) | 26 (23-29) |
Anal gonorrhoea at study visit | 0.06 (0.04,0.07) | 0.02 (0.01,0.03) | 14 | 10 (9-10) | 6 (5-7) | 4 (4-5) |