Young and vulnerable: Spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for infant mortality in rural South Africa (Agincourt), 1992-2007

Table 2 All-cause multivariate risk factor analysis for infant mortality in Agincourt sub-district, 1992-2007, using Bayesian geostatistical and temporal models

	Spatial model		Temporal model		Spatial-temporal model
Covariate	IRR [95%CI]	signif ^α	IRR [95%CI]	signif ^α	IRR [95%CI]	Signif ^α
Later year of birth	1.09 [1.06,1.13]	*	1.20 [1.03,1.42]	*	1.25 [1.07,1.53]	*
Cumulative household deaths	12.45 [9.41,16.31]	*	12.52 [9.47,16.26]	*	12.59 [9.53,16.49]	*
Male gender	1.09 [0.84,1.4]		1.09 [0.83,1.4]		1.09 [0.84,1.4]
Mother died in infant's first year	49.82 [7.85,204.7]	*	49.62 [8,189.9]	*	51.11 [8.49,200.8]	*
Pregnancy parity	0.91 [0.80,1.05]		0.94 [0.82,1.08]		0.94 [0.82,1.06]
Previous child died	2.33 [0.99,4.86]	#	2.07 [0.93,4.07]	#	2.02 [0.89,3.96]	#
Previous birth stillborn	8.13 [2.08,22.99]	*	6.24 [1.55,16.99]	*	6.29 [1.56,17.85]	*
Constant (b0)	-3.24 [-4.60,-1.82]		-0.10 [-2.09,1.65]		-0.63 [-3.08,0.97]
σ² (spatial)	9.15 [4.29,18.33]		---		0.09 [0.03,0.22]
σ² (temporal)	---		0.42 [0.14,1.05]		0.44 [0.14,1.11]
DIC ^β	8680.07		8617.10		8617.34

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